$SMH is back below the 200-day EMA, the 200-day SMA, and the value area low (blue horizontal line on the chart below) of the volume profile anchored to the February 25 '26 high.
Imagine the smell if $BtcUSD takes out the July 1 '26 low...
For now, $RSP relative to $QQQ trades above the resistance of the 21 EMA on a monthly chart. This hasn't happened since price fell below the 21 EMA on a monthly chart in March '23. Hopefully, what we are seeing today is only an insignificant wick. If you think this data point is completely irrelevant, be my guest; but then, show me some better data points...
$QQQ has lost the VWAP anchored to the March 30 '26 low and could very well be on its way to a retest of dynamic support at the 200-day EMA and the 200-day SMA. Hopefully, $QQQ finds support at the 200-day MAs. However, if $QQQ loses support at the 200-day MAs, then it finds itself in an area with very thin volume on the volume profile anchored to the January 28 '26 high. In other words: Not a lot of support from the volume profile in this area beneath the 200-day MAs. So, if $QQQ loses support at the 200-day MAs, then it could potentially go all the way down and retest the value area low (blue horizontal line) of the volume profile and maybe also the VWAP anchored to the April 7 '25 low. I am not trying to predict anything here; I just explain what is visible on the chart. Of course I hope that $QQQ finds support at the 200-day MAs; however, I still think it's prudent to be aware of the possibilities outlined in the chart. Have a great weekend! 🌟
$SMH has retested the 200-day EMA and the 200-day SMA; for now, it trades below these two MAs. Also, for now it has lost support at the value area low (blue horizontal line) of the volume profile anchored to the February 25 '26 high. If $SMH puts in a close below this value area low, it will enter an area of very thin volume on the volume profile; not a lot of support beneath the value area low. So, if $SMH puts in a close below this value area low, then it can potentially go all the way down and retest the VWAP anchored to the April 7 '25 low. I want to be very clear: I am not trying to predict anything. I just explain what is visible on the chart. Anything is possible. Of course I hope that $SMH finds support and puts in a close above the value area low; then again, I think it's prudent to be aware of the possibilities outlined in the chart.
$SMH has retested the 200-day EMA and the 200-day SMA; for now, it trades below these two MAs. It's trying to establish support at the value area low (blue horizontal line) of the volume profile anchored to the February 25 '26 high. If $SMH loses this value area low, it will enter an area of very thin volume on the volume profile; not a lot of support beneath the value area low. So, if $SMH loses this value area low, then it can potentially go all the way down and retest the VWAP anchored to the April 7 '26 low. I want to be very clear: I am not trying to predict anything. I just explain what is visible on the chart. Anything is possible. Of course I hope that $SMH finds support at the value area low; then again, I think it's prudent to be aware of the possibilities outlined in the chart.
I have said again and again, that I don't think that we are through the woods regarding the sell off in tech & growth. I have said again and again, that I am mentally prepared for tech & growth to go lower. Based on my own analysis of especially relative pairs like $RSP relative to $SPY and $RSP relative to $QQQ, I have kept a relatively high amount of my portfolio in cash. Looking at today's price action, I can only say one thing: I am super happy that I have put in the effort and acquired the necessary skills to do my own technical analysis. I don't need to listen to other peoples lazy or superficial takes on the market; I can look at the charts myself and plan and act accordingly.
Look, $BtcUSD is only down around -11.72% from its September 21 '26 high; it's nothing. For now, this drop is nothing. I'll add to my $BTC position, if we get a substantial drop. If we don't get a substantial drop, I am happy to keep my Bitcoin position as it is. When I made my Bitcoin purchase, I made a plan for my Bitcoin position and future purchases; I'll stick to my plan. That's it.
This is $RSP relative to $SPY on a daily chart. After a minor drop, $RSP relative to $SPY is back above the 200-day SMA and the 200-day EMA. For the sell off in tech & growth to stop, we need to see $RSP relative to $SPY put in a local top. Where is that local top? I don't know. Maybe somewhere above the 200-day SMA and the 200-day EMA; maybe... We'll see.