What happened to most of the altcoins after 2021 crypto bubble will happen to most of the AI stocks after this current AI bubble. Simple.

Sailor should full port a 40X short on hyperliquid, clip his BTC supply, close the short, and then full port his stock and pivot to AI.

.@CryptoHayes thinks AI is in a bubble and the closest historical comp is the railroad buildout. "humans are always over optimistic at the beginning of any technological build out." "What happened with the railroad build out?" "credit grew into railroads and sort of an over indexing about the return that these things could generate." Now, he says AI has the same problem: "it's all these circular revenue deals." "it's all just circular accounting" "i gotta think about the exit from this thing"

🚨Investors are fleeing private credit at a RECORD pace: Morgan Stanley's North Haven Private Income Fund, which manages ~$7 billion in assets, reported on Tuesday that it received redemption requests equivalent to 11.6% of its net asset value in Q2, up from 10.9% in Q1, marking the 2nd consecutive quarter of gating. More than half of Q2 requests came from investors who failed to exit in full in the prior quarter, showing that unmet redemptions are rolling forward and compounding over time. Apollo's flagship retail private credit fund, Apollo Debt Solutions, saw an even larger surge, with withdrawal requests reaching ~17% of net asset value in Q2, up from 11% in Q1. With ~$2.4 billion in withdrawal requests during the quarter, Apollo met less than 30% of redemptions, capping payouts at the standard 5% quarterly limit. This comes as AI disruption risk in software is raising questions around private credit, while higher rates and stronger public market returns make illiquid funds less attractive. The question is no longer if private credit faces a crisis, but how deep it goes.

It sounds like you understood this all along. If you really understood, you should be thanking me for guiding you out of cryptocurrencies and into AI profits earlier. Are you keeping up? Either way: First, you never understood and never caught on. Second, you understood and caught on before, but didn’t want to thank me—now you just want to complain.

This kind of brings up the bigger point of China pulling ahead of the West both in AI and crypto because they're investing in open-source projects rather than extraction models. They have digital RMBs already in use. Here, we have memecoins and ponzis. Can't be any more clear.

Mark Cuban faces a new appeal in the Voyager cryptocurrency case. Neither side has commented yet—stay tuned for updates. #bitcoin #cryptocurrency #voyager

In the AI era, as information becomes increasingly transparent, participants in the market can now be assumed to be AI agents. Based on my personal observations: 1. Today, most scenarios in the investment market will become negative-EV arenas, where fundamental analysis or news arbitrage windows will shrink to millisecond-level durations. 2. The speed at which consensus forms is thousands of times faster than the traditional value investing framework, with prices instantly reflecting all publicly available information. 3. It’s crucial to focus on conditional expectations— that is, enhancing your edge in every opportunity. In simpler terms: I only participate in positive-EV situations where I have a distinct advantage— my own unique, non-standard edge and specialized insight. I rarely rely on anyone else’s strategies, reducing my betting frequency and raising my entry standards. The era of intense competition has already passed— precisely because it became too extreme. Welcome to the new era, which begins in 2026.

PRIVATE CREDIT EXPLAINED: Why a market few people discussed 15 years ago now matters to the entire financial system. Before 2008, corporate lending was dominated by banks. Companies usually borrowed through: • Bank loans • Syndicated loans • Public bonds Then the Global Financial Crisis changed the system. After 2008, regulators forced banks to hold more capital and reduce risky leveraged lending. But demand for credit did not disappear. It moved outside the banking system. Private-credit funds began raising money from pension funds, insurers and institutional investors, then lending directly to companies. No public bond issue. No daily market pricing. No large banking syndicate. At the same time, years of near-zero rates created huge demand for yield. Private credit offered: • Higher returns • Floating rates • Secured loans • Less visible volatility Private equity accelerated the trend. As banks retreated from leveraged lending, private-credit funds became the financiers of corporate buyouts. The system became: Pensions and insurers provide capital. Private-credit funds make the loans. Private-equity firms use the debt to acquire companies. What began as a niche market became a multitrillion-dollar lending machine. The risk is that much of this debt carries floating rates. A company borrowing at SOFR + 6% paid roughly 6% when SOFR was near zero. With SOFR near 5%, the same loan costs around 11%. The company has not borrowed more. Its interest expense has nearly doubled. At first, higher rates benefit lenders. Eventually, borrowers struggle to pay. Then the cycle begins: Cash flow weakens Refinancing becomes harder Loan terms are amended Interest is added to the debt Leverage increases Defaults eventually rise This stress can remain hidden because the loans do not trade publicly. Valuations are model-based, maturities can be extended and lenders can use payment-in-kind interest to postpone recognizing trouble. The risk has not disappeared. It has become less visible. Private credit is also connected to the broader system. Banks finance the funds. Pensions and insurers invest in them. Private-equity portfolios depend on them. Companies rely on them for refinancing and growth. This does not mean the Fed will cut rates only to rescue private credit. But private credit is now a major channel through which high rates create financial stress. Lower rates would reduce interest costs, improve refinancing conditions, revive buyouts and encourage more lending. That is the macro significance. The old credit cycle was driven mainly by banks. The new one is increasingly driven by private funds. Private credit may become both: The fuel for the next liquidity-driven boom. And one of the fault lines beneath the eventual bust.