Who’s ready for that inflation data tomorrow?! 😅

INTEL: Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will resume in Q3, but traffic is not expected to return to pre-war levels until early 2027, IEA says

Consensus spent Friday calling the top. The tape fell hard, and not one of the three lines that define a real break actually broke. 📰 TLDR: Friday was a positioning flush inside a tense regime, not a credit led cycle break. It stays a flush through CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday unless one of three lines flips by Friday close. ❗️ The read: · A real cycle break shows up in credit first, then equities follow. Friday the Nasdaq fell 4 percent while high yield spreads stayed under 3 percent. That is the flush signature, not the break signature · All three lines below held through Friday’s drop and Monday’s stabilization. The move happened without them breaking, which is the evidence it was crowded positioning unwinding, not solvency stress spreading · CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday are the real test. Hot prints press the long end and credit at the same time. That is the one channel that could convert this flush into a break 🏆 The 3 lines (and where they sit): · V1: High yield credit spreads hold below 3.00 percent through Friday close. At 2.76 entering Tuesday · V2: The 30 year Treasury yield holds below 5.10 through Friday close. At 5.03 entering Tuesday, the least room of the three · V3: The S&P 500 holds above 7,250 on a closing basis. Any close below breaks it. At 7,440 entering Tuesday, the floor about 2.5 percent down If all three hold through Friday, the flush stabilizes and the read stays guarded, not broken. If any one flips, the call is out and the regime turns from tension to break. Save this. Re evaluating at any close that breaks a line.

Today’s sell-off across equities and crypto cannot be attributed solely to the SpaceX IPO narrative, nor to the solid housing market, based on today’s Existing Home Sales prints , which evaporated the probability of a rate cut and rather increased that of a hike. One possibility worth considering is that markets are beginning to position defensively ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data. I am not suggesting that anyone has access to the numbers beforehand. Rather, when uncertainty is elevated, large participants often reduce risk before major macro releases instead of waiting for the actual print. If tomorrow’s inflation data comes in hotter than expected, today’s price action may prove to have been an early warning. If not, markets could quickly reverse and recover part of the decline. For now, the data remains unknown. The only thing we know is that risk appetite deteriorated significantly ahead of a major macro event. NFA. DYOR ⚡

🚨 Asian Session Alert: China drops May CPI & PPI tonight, CPI YoY exp ~1.3% (after April’s soft print), PPI YoY exp ~3.8% (sticky on energy). Watch if inflation rebounds amid oil volatility & stimulus digestion. Japan releases May PPI (YoY exp ~5.5%) + Machine Tool Orders later. South Korea Q1 GDP final also due (QoQ exp ~1.7-1.8%). China inflation beat? Less urgent PBOC easing, short-term fiat strength. Sticky PPI? Persistent pressures fuel Bitcoin hedge narrative on macro uncertainty & debasement fears

Tonight at 9:30 PM U.S. CPI data release expected Will Bitcoin surge? Or plummet? $85K vs $55K