🟢 Market Outlook - US Midterms Could Be a Turning Point Another heavy week ahead: 🔹Mon: ISM Manufacturing PMI 🔹Tue: US Midterms & JOLTS 🔹Wed: ISM Services PMI 🔹Fri: NFP & Unemployment 🟢 But I believe tomorrow’s midterm elections deserve particular attention. Here is a “peculiar” market hypothesis that has nothing to do with political preferences: 👉 “A divided Congress, or Democratic control of both chambers, could prove supportive for risk assets.” Why? ❗️Because markets value predictability❗️ A Congress less aligned with the administration, could impose greater constraints on major legislative initiatives, strengthen oversight and potentially reduce certain sources of policy uncertainty. This could translate into a lower political risk premium and a more predictable investment environment. 🔹There is an important caveat though : Congress cannot eliminate geopolitical uncertainty or prevent all executive decisions. In addition political gridlock could create new risks, particularly around government funding and fiscal negotiations. 🟢 My thesis is not that one political party is better for markets. It is that institutional checks and balances may change how investors price uncertainty. For BTC and crypto, I will be watching whether the election outcome affects Treasury yields, the USD and broader risk appetite. No matter what, with major macro releases ahead, caution remains warranted. NFA. DYOR ⚡️

⚠️ Market Alert - BoJ Decision Ahead At approximately 05:00 Athens time tomorrow, the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision. Markets expect rates to remain unchanged at 1.25%. But the real risk is a hawkish surprise. A rate hike, or even an unexpectedly hawkish guidance, could strengthen the JPY, accelerate the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades and trigger broader deleveraging across risk assets, including crypto. 👉 Remember August 2024. A repeat is far from certain, but the mechanism remains relevant. Watch USD/JPY closely, alongside equity futures and BTC price action. With geopolitical uncertainty already elevated, I would be particularly cautious with leveraged positions overnight. NFA. DYOR ⚡️

🟢 Market Update - FOMC Day Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders (+1.8% vs +1.5% forecast) helped support a market rebound. But a reversal is not “secured” yet. For the recovery to develop into a sustainable bullish trend, we need a supportive outcome from this week’s three major central-bank decisions: Fed today, ECB tomorrow, and BoJ on Friday, assuming that no major geopolitical escalation will take place. 🟢 Today’s focus: 🔹20:00 Athens: Fed rate decision and FOMC statement 🔹20:30 Athens: Chairman Warsh’s press conference With unchanged rates largely priced in, the real market mover will likely be the Fed’s statement language and Warsh’s responses on inflation and future monetary policy. 🟢 My base case: Upward momentum may persist into the US session, potentially weakening as we approach the announcement. Expect volatility around the decision, with the press conference potentially determining the next directional move. For BTC and crypto, I want to see genuine spot demand supporting any breakout and not just additional leveraged positioning, which is very common lately. NFA. DYOR ⚡️

🟢 Market Update - Mixed US Data, Potential Bounce US durable goods orders came in at +1.8% MoM, beating the +1.5% forecast. 🟢 However, the underlying figures were less convincing: 🔹Ex-transportation: +0.5% vs +0.6% expected 🔹Core capital goods orders: +0.5% vs +0.7% expected The overall picture is mixed, but markets are showing signs of a potential bounce. With the Fed, ECB and BoJ decisions still ahead this week, I wouldn’t interpret an initial recovery as confirmation of a sustained reversal. Should the bounce gain traction during the US session, I’ll consider selective short-term long setups. 🟢 For crypto, I’ll reassess BTC spot volume, OI and funding after the US open to determine whether the move has genuine spot support or is primarily leverage-driven. 🟢 The main target for today is to exploit any tactical opportunities that might arise. NFA. DYOR ⚡️

🟢 Market Update - Japan Inflation & Carry Trade Risk In a few hours, Japan releases its latest CPI figures, one of the final major macro events of the week. Why does it matter for crypto and global risk assets? Japan’s inflation outlook directly influences expectations for further Bank of Japan rate hikes. A hotter-than-expected print could strengthen the JPY and accelerate expectations for additional monetary tightening. That combination could put pressure on yen-funded carry trades, potentially triggering deleveraging across global markets. With the BoJ meeting approaching on October 30, tonight’s release deserves attention. I’ll be watching USD/JPY, Japanese government bond yields and BTC price action closely. NFA. DYOR ⚡️

🟢 Market Update | Waiting for a Catalyst Today’s US macro calendar: 🔹 15:15 - ADP Weekly Employment Change 🔹 15:30 - Housing Starts & Building Permits Following last week’s hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI releases, markets appear indecisive, with neither bulls nor bears establishing a sustainable trend. A meaningful catalyst, whether macroeconomic or geopolitical, could be needed to break the current uncertainty. Today’s releases may provide additional clues on the strength of the US economy, although their immediate market impact could be limited. With uncertainty still elevated, caution around the announcements remains advisable. NFA. DYOR ⚡️

Market Update - BTC Rebounds, But Risks Remain Following today’s hotter-than-expected PPI, BTC briefly dropped below $80K before recovering toward $82.5K The latest market structure data: 🔹Spot volume: 32.2K BTC, already near yesterday’s full-day volume. 🔹OI: $25.39B, slightly higher than yesterday. 🔹Funding: Down ~21%, but still positive. The recovery is encouraging, particularly given the substantial spot activity. However, elevated OI and positive funding suggest leverage remains in the system. This is not yet a confirmed bullish reversal. 🟢 Key levels: Support: $82K / $80K Resistance: $83.9K I’ll remain cautious until price action and derivatives positioning provide clearer confirmation. Meanwhile, I’ll start evaluating opportunities to gradually rebuild spot exposure to selected crypto assets. NFA. DYOR ⚡️

🟢 Macro Watch - US Treasury Auctions With Treasury yields under pressure and markets increasingly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, today’s US Treasury auctions deserve attention. 🔹 4-week T-bill 🔹 8-week T-bill 🔹 30-year Treasury bond auction All of them later today. A move above 4% in short-term bills would be worth monitoring, alongside with the demand relative to expectations, bid-to-cover ratios and the market’s subsequent reaction. Yesterday’s strong 10Y auction helped ease pressure on Treasury yields. Today’s 30Y auction could provide a more consequential test of demand for long-duration US debt. ⚠️ A weak auction, particularly if accompanied by rising 10Y/30Y yields and a stronger DXY, could create additional headwinds for equities and crypto. Conversely, strong demand and retreating yields could offer some relief. I’ll be watching Treasury yields, DXY, Nasdaq and BTC together. NFA. DYOR⚡️

🟢 Macro Update In approximately one hour, shortly after the US open, we get ISM Manufacturing PMI. 🔹 Consensus: 55 🔹 Previous: 54.6 Yesterday’s combination of softer-than-expected Core PCE and resilient economic activity created a relatively constructive macro backdrop. A solid ISM print today could reinforce the soft-landing / resilient-growth narrative and support risk appetite. But be careful with interpreting the headline alone. ‼️ A very strong print, particularly if accompanied by renewed price pressures, could also push yields higher and revive concerns about additional Fed tightening. 👉 Once again: don’t trade the number. Trade the market’s interpretation of the number. Give the market some time after the release and watch US yields, DXY, equities and BTC before committing. NFA. DYOR⚡️

Market update Day 2 of this week’s important US macro releases, and today’s main focus is Core PCE. Consensus: +0.3% MoM, up from +0.2% previously. With inflation still elevated and the Fed having already restarted its hiking cycle, a material upside surprise could strengthen expectations for additional tightening and put renewed pressure on risk assets. On the other hand, an in-line or softer print could reduce some of that pressure, but, once again, 👉 the market’s interpretation matters more than the number alone. Watch US yields, DXY, equities and BTC after the release. 🟢 I remain cautious in this environment. I’m not chasing moves and, when trading short-term volatility, I’m taking profits aggressively. For longer-term positioning, I continue to gradually increase spot exposure to BTC and selected large-cap alts, while keeping enough liquidity to react if better opportunities emerge. NFA. DYOR⚡️