Key #Events US Initial Jobless Claims (during the week ending on 30th May) - June 4 12:30 GMT time US Initial Jobless Claims is an indicator of the US labor market. US Initial Jobless Claims (during the week ending on 30th May) is now expected to fall from 215,000 to 213,000.

Citi remains bullish on oil, expecting Brent to average $110 per barrel in Q3 before easing to $90 in Q4 and $80 in 2027. The bank says low inventories should keep prices elevated in the near term.

Back to back o my timeline: One says nobody knows why China is importing 5.5 mbpd less; SoH SIEGE would be my guess 🤣🤪 and the other says China oil demand dropped 1.5 mbpd while the rest of financial media says that China economy is growing 🤡 Growth w/o oil is like living w/o air.

JUST IN 🚨: There is now a 3.6% chance of a rate cut at this month's FOMC and a 0% chance of a rate hike 🤯

Canadian dollar will strengthen if progress made in USMCA review: Reuters poll

US jobless claims rose above expectations, signaling mild labor-market cooling without changing the broader employment picture. 📌 The latest data showed initial jobless claims rising to 225,000 for the week ending May 30, above the 213,000–215,000 forecast range and up 13,000 from the prior week’s revised level. 🔎 This was the highest reading since early February 2026, but it is not yet a strongly negative signal because the absolute level remains low by historical standards. The 4-week average rose only modestly to 214,750, suggesting the move may still be partly distorted by seasonal effects around the Memorial Day holiday. 💡 The balancing point is continuing claims, which slipped slightly to 1.777 million, while the insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2%. This suggests the US labor market is slowing, but there is still no clear sign of broad-based layoffs or serious deterioration. ⏱️ For financial markets, the data leans mildly dovish for the Fed, offering moderate support to bonds and gold while adding slight pressure on the US dollar. However, the impact remains limited as investors still need confirmation from the May NFP report. ⚠️ Overall, this is more of a light warning signal than a red flag. If NFP also comes in weak, expectations for a softer Fed stance could rise; if job growth remains stable, markets may treat this claims increase as short-term seasonal noise. #MacroInsights

🛢️ OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said global oil demand remains solid and the group will not change its forecasts despite the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz 🌍 OPEC still expects demand growth of 1.2M barrels per day this year, with Al Ghais saying the organization has not seen evidence of a structural decline in consumption 📈 He also warned that oil industry investment should not be disrupted by “one-off events,” stressing the need to invest early to meet future energy demand ⚡ #Oil #OPEC #Energy

The yen ultimately couldn’t hold up, and the exchange rate continued to fall. For the past few months, whenever the USD/JPY rate reached 160, the Japanese government intervened, using its U.S. dollar reserves in an attempt to stabilize the exchange rate. They’ve been continuously selling U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasuries to support the yen—but it’s been completely ineffective. The yen keeps falling; as long as Japan doesn’t raise interest rates, the currency will keep weakening, and inflation and prices will keep rising. The last time Japan raised interest rates, it had little impact on the stock market. The biggest shock came in August 2024. If interest rates are raised this time, capital will likely flee risk assets temporarily for safety. That’s why I haven’t acted yet—I’m waiting until mid- to late June before considering positioning in U.S. stocks. Besides the upcoming FOMC meeting, Japan’s potential rate hike remains the biggest wildcard this month. If they don’t raise rates, their foreign exchange reserves won’t hold out much longer. If they do raise rates, it’s essentially a dampener on Trump ahead of the midterm elections. How Prime Minister Kishida’s government will choose—next week, we’ll find out.

Yılmaz: Target trade volume of $5 billion Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz noted that trade volume with Turkmenistan reached $2.2 billion last year and stated that, in line with the $5 billion target set by the leaders of both countries, cooperation will be strengthened in trade, energy, transportation, and investment.