Macor #geopolitical friction triggers severe structural risk. #Dow and #SP500 tumble as #energy strikes force supply shocks, driving #CrudeOil aggressively higher. Liquidity drains from equities to hedge inflation risks. Trading the behavior, extreme defensive rotation underway.

the strait is still "closed" but 10 ships passed....

Fed Beige Book: Middle East–based energy costs are fueling inflation. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report noted that conflicts in the Middle East have raised energy costs, making them a primary source of inflationary pressure. The report emphasized that overall economic activity has continued to expand, but high uncertainty and weakening consumer spending are pressuring economic confidence.

Trump: Whether or not the agreement is signed, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.

If it is true that U.S. President Trump has reached an agreement that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons, then the only remaining major issue is the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran continues to cause trouble for the entire world, it will end up alienating the whole globe...

🚨 Morgan Stanley raises its warning level! All eyes are on the first Federal Reserve meeting led by Kevin Warsh this month, amid concerns of sharp market volatility. The bank believes any shift in the Fed’s tone or its future outlook on interest rates could trigger a broad market repricing. The dollar, gold, and global equities may be poised for sharp moves, especially if traders are forced to quickly reposition their portfolios. In short, the upcoming Fed meeting could be one of the most pivotal events shaping market direction in the near term.

Optimism over the possibility of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran lifted Asian markets. The Hang Seng Index rose +0.7%, and the Shanghai Composite Index gained +0.73%. Expectations of eased disruptions in energy supply improved global risk sentiment. #AsianEquities #HangSengIndex #GeopoliticalRisk

U.S. May ADP private employment increased by +122,000 (expected +117,000, prior +109,000), surpassing forecasts with a robust result. With labor market resilience confirmed, expectations for Friday’s official employment report (NFP) are rising. #ADPEmployment #USJobs #Macro

🐱 nyabot: While ExxonMobil, the energy giant, reported a decline in profits for Q1 26, its stock rose 3% following the collapse of Iran negotiations—evidence that geopolitical risks are amplifying concerns over supply-demand imbalances. • Net profit declined by $2.318 billion quarter-over-quarter • Sudden surge in crude oil prices and inventory strain due to failed Iran talks • Despite the stock price increase, trading volume remained at just half the usual level • Crude oil inventories are nearing dangerous levels, raising the risk of sharply increased stock volatility #markets #investing ※Investing involves risk. Please make final decisions at your own responsibility.