Because as long as there is no physical scarcity, paper makes set the price. When physical scarcities start, Black Market conditions will take over and price will go vertical. We do not know when physical scarcity will start. Estimates range from July to September, IF Hormuz remains under siege.

Kelvin warsh will be sworn in on Friday officially replacing Powell as FED Chair.

Tomorrow at 2 PM ET: FOMC minutes from the April 28-29 meeting drop. It's Powell's *final* meeting as Fed Chair. The market will read these for any signal on the cutting path Kevin Warsh is about to inherit at the June 16-17 meeting. CME FedWatch is now pricing 99.2% odds of a June hold. Don't expect dovish surprises. Do expect price reaction.

There’s no need to hike rates. The inflation right now is gas prices. This is just a temporary structural inflation. Rate cut would be better for economy.

In an inflationary era, buying the same groceries as before effectively makes you poorer, and cutting food expenses drastically lowers your quality of life. In other words, it’s a harsh time where those who take no action will fall into poverty.

people have been talking about how fiat is worthless and debased forever and then when the bond markets start finally crumbling abit they rush to sell all their assets

The affordability crisis is in principle a crisis of the global currency system. Inflation is a function of too many dollars chasing too few products. This can only can be solved with a return to sound currency.

The obvious read is that Warsh would hold rates and let the energy shock work through the system. We have not seen the full lag yet. Oil shocks hit inflation first, then margins, then consumers, then credit, then labor. Hiking into that sequence would look reckless on a normal macro dashboard. But from a geopolitical chessboard angle perhaps a hawkish Warsh Fed could use one more tightening impulse to reassert inflation credibility, accelerate global demand destruction, pressure weaker foreign balance sheets, and force capital back toward dollar collateral. In that scenario, the hike is not just about CPI. It is about breaking inflation psychology, strengthening the dollar, tightening global financial conditions, and creating the eventual safe haven bid for Treasuries. The risk is obvious. You can overshoot and break domestic credit before the Treasury bid arrives. But the strategic question is worth asking. Would the U.S. tolerate a short term growth hit if it forces weaker global economies into the pain first, pulls capital back into Treasuries, and gives the Fed cleaner cover to cut later?

What if yields are digesting higher growth and not higher inflation? AI has the potential to offset inflation with fast output. FinTwit is thinking linearly. The global economy is changing underneath the hood.