$BTC - The Bouncy Ball price action we suggested early in the month is playing out as we expected. ✅
BTC remains in the trading range between $60k and $73k, as it should.
That was a macro vision I shared publicly, while making local updates in private.
The latest update I made there was my expectation of BTC reaching at least $62k this week, followed by a bounce. Exactly what happened. 👍
What next?
Considering that we are heading into the monthly candle switch, the fluctuations in both directions can be seen this week. So, got to be careful.
As long as BTC holds that blue zone, it remains locally bullish. Really bullish it gets if BTC manages to flip the green CTR line above. Until then, it represents a solid local resistance.
Considering the monthly switch, I think that it would be wise to revisit 60k and would root for that scenario to play out first.
I am not saying this is what is going to actually happen. But this is one of the two scenarios I see and share in my charts.
Why revisiting $60k would be a good idea?
- Because that would allow us to fill that previous monthly candle's wick and would make our positioning and grounds for recovery more fundamentally bullish.
- If we start the month and soar without filling that $60k wick, it will always hang above our head, and once BTC retests $72k-$74k and flips everyone's bias mega bullish again, BTC will be forced (like a magnet) to fall back to $60k. Only this time, that blue supporting line's support will be much lower, and BTC will be forced to go lower.
- Many smart traders (KOLs) on X use only horizontal support lines, and they have already started claiming that if $BTC loses 62k (our blue zone), it is going to be invalidation and a further big flush will come. I think that would be a perfect trick by the MMs to sweep into the $60k area (to counter-trade a popular narrative) to force people out of their positions and activate retail shorts to unexpectedly catch them off guard after. Few people use TLs and diagonal lines, and they are crucial in macro phases like this.
For those reasons, I think revisiting the $60k area would build stronger grounds for the following mid-term upside move.
Anyway, I remain open to any of these two mid-term scenarios. Based on which one starts to play out first will become clear to me what to expect later and choose my actions accordingly.
