I’m going to drop a very aggressive take: starting from 2026, for the next two years, $SPY and $QQQ will have basically zero long-term investment value (whether dollar-cost averaging or pure buy & hold).
The total market cap of IGV’s constituents has already exceeded $6T, accounting for more than 1/10 of the entire S&P 500 weight.
Meanwhile, AI Agents (such as Anthropic’s Claude Cowork) are completely destroying the seat-based / per-seat pricing logic.
Corporate IT budgets are growing at roughly only 8%, yet AI budgets are growing at over 100%.
That means virtually every dollar AI takes is being clawed directly out of traditional software subscription spend.
SaaS is destined to — or rather, is already experiencing — a brutal Davis Double Kill, and will become the single heaviest drag on the broad market’s upside.
Now look at other sectors: $XLI, $XLE, $XLP, $XLF, etc. — their valuations have already been pushed back to the extreme highs seen during the 2020–2021 liquidity flood era.
Defensive money has squeezed these “safe haven” sectors to bursting point; there is almost zero room left for further multiple expansion.
The only sector still showing real growth is semiconductors.
But the critical point is: the value destroyed in the SaaS collapse will not 100% flow into chips and the big cloud vendors.
AI is shortening the value chain and eliminating a huge amount of middle-layer profit leakage.
This massive value evaporation means that even with Nvidia acting as a leading winner, it still cannot drag the entire IGV basket higher.
Although the S&P 500 does have a rebalancing mechanism, the quarterly adjustment speed is far too slow to keep up with the actual pace of AI evolution.
Until these zombie SaaS companies are massively kicked out of the index, and the next generation of AI-native unicorns (OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, SpaceX, etc.) complete their IPOs and take their places, the index is likely to face a prolonged, soul-crushing period of sideways grinding.
This is the era that belongs to traders, not investors.
Investors, pivot to Ethereum and @BitMNR
@fundstrat
$ETH $BMNR
