$BTC In November 2022 we entered capitulation phase. This was the last downward move before the market stabilized and recovered. Now, the exact same thing has happened. Looks like we're headed towards a new ATH in the next few years. Potentially past 200k this time. Interesting how similar this is.
$BTC The bear market lasted 260 days. This surge from 60 to 85k means we're now in recovery phase. However, as always, the market is slow. There is no crazy bull run coming, there is no magic institutional money coming. Everything takes time and will take time. And usually, bull phases last longer than bear phases. Now I'm not surprised if we liquidate early longs with another move below 70-75k and then get the real jump past 100k in 2027. Patience.
$BTC Bitcoin made a small dip this week. Might crash until 70 000$ as profits are being taken. Best move would be to scale in gradually over the next few weeks. This happens after 10 months of bear market. The downtrend seems over. But of course we won't get back to ATH so quickly. Bitcoin might take a few years. Altcoins can make much stronger moves though.
In life, setbacks happen. You fail at something or didn't get the results you wanted. And then you're frustrated, upset. This is a SIGN that you need to CHANGE something. Don't fall into the trap of "Okay, I must get back up and keep going" Because otherwise you can keep failing forever with this mentality. You take the pain and the frustration, and instead of just digesting it, you make a PLAN and change everything. Because if everything was going fine, you wouldn't be hurt by this setback in the first place. Always adapt.
🟢Polymarket - Brazilian presidential election 🇧🇷 Up until May, this was supposed to be a close race as both candidates sat around 40% probability of winning the presidential election on Polymarket. At this point, most polls expected a close race in the second round. However, this all changed due to the Banco Master scandal which caused Bolsonaro to drop down to 22-23% chance on Polymarket. Meanwhile, third-party candidate Renan Santos was overestimated despite failing to cross 10% in the polls. The market over-reacted and this was indeed a golden opportunity to bet on Bolsonaro at a cheap price. 🟢Why Bolsonaro is likely to overtake Lula soon Because the impact of the scandal was not strongly reflected in the polls. Bolsonaro did lose a few points in May, but the race for the presidency remained tight, especially since polls tend to shift significantly during the election campaign. And in the last few weeks, the polls have tightened and now have the candidates running neck and neck. On top of that, many elements indicate that this will likely be a very close race: -Strong left-right polarization -Already a close race in 2022 -Both candidates have a similar 50% disapproval rate 🟢However, there is one point that weighs in favor of Bolsonaro, at least in the first round of the election: -Lula is the incumbent president in a heavily polarized system. Incumbents are less likely to be re-elected in such scenarios. For example, the incumbent party lost power in the US in 2024 and Colombia in 2026. Or even France in 2012. This really reminds me of the US presidential election of 2024 with Biden being the incumbent. 🟢To sum up, as election day gets closer, the huge opportunity to buy Bolsonaro below 33% is now gone. He'll most likely overtake Lula in the next few days and have a "honeymoon" period due to the opinion polls being more and more favorable to him. In the end, the first-round results on October 4 will of course give the first major indication as to where this is going, as a second round is now almost guaranteed.
This is what LESS THAN A MONTH can do to Bitcoin. But before this big breakthrough, price had been stagnating for a few months. This move was prepared a few months before. Low volatily never means "dead", it means something is coming. This is what "locking in" means. Focus for a few months, silent work, preparation before making your big move. There is a lesson in this.
BITCOIN DID IT - AND I'M BACK ⚡️ It took a month and a half of hard-range, low volatility and me not posting for Bitcoin to finally make the big move everyone was waiting for. It proves once again that ranges mean that both long and shorts are stacking gradually before one side totally breaks under pressure. There's a lesson in this. It's exactly when I stop trading that everything goes back up. The reverse indicator strikes again. Anyway, I hope we have a big altseason anytime soon (because that's where the biggest profits are made).