Today, I sold most of my $QNT! I sold every single one at a profit. This is what crypto is all about—you’re stuck with an asset in the red for two years, and then it takes just a week to make it all back 😄 And the best part? Tax-free! And the second-best part? I still have a tiny moonbag left (just in case the moonboys’ delusions about the price turn out to be right 🥸)
I’m about to start buying heavily into crypto and Bitcoin! Let me explain. Almost everyone is talking about how Japan might crash the markets next week. Same pattern as always—just a new name. Take a look at what’s really happening behind the scenes: Bitcoin is around $63,000. Now it gets interesting. The 200-week EMA is at $68,500. The bear market resistance band is at $69,500. The cost basis of short-term holders is at $69,500. Three completely different methods, pointing to the exact same zone. As long as we’re below that level, any rally is just that—a rally. We’ve been range-bound for weeks. For most, the most boring market in a long time. That’s exactly why I’m buying. What almost no one is noticing: August has had a median return of -7% since 2013. Nine out of thirteen Augusts were down. September is the only month where both average and median returns are clearly negative. And right after that? October: median +14.7%. November: median +8.8%. The two weakest months are behind us. The two strongest are coming next. Those who wait until it “feels good” will buy in October— and pay more. If you’ve read this far: feel free to follow for more.
To be honest, I don’t understand why so few are paying attention to this: All historical data points to the same time window—and it’s closer than most realize. While 90 percent are just complaining about how bad this bear market is, I took this week to seriously ask the question and analyze every piece of data I could find. The result even surprised me—so much of it converges on the same outcome! When overlaying the current cycle onto the last three, the bottom always occurred 2 to 2.5 years after the halving. This time, that would be September through late October. A second method, using 11 cycle turning points (all of which have historically hit their target windows): a bottom between November 2026 and January 2027. A third indicator, unrelated to the halving, marked previous bottoms in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022. Its next zone: end of 2026. Three completely different methods. One window: Q4. And the craziest part? It’s almost eerie how precisely these patterns have held up for years. Yet everyone is only looking at today’s price. My assessment: 65 to 70 percent of this bear market is already behind us. The worst is essentially over. Will it start next month? No. But anyone who waits until it’s in the headlines was never early.
Everyone who is regaining hope in the market should read this post‼️ On June 24, headlines went wild: MicroStrategy plummeted sharply. Silver dropped below $60. Gold fell below $4,000. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000. What many don’t realize: At the end of June, the comments under my videos were angrier than they’d been in months. “Crypto is dead,” “You idiot,” “It’s all over.” Today, Bitcoin is at $64,000 — up 11% from its previous low. The peak anger occurred right after the breakdown below $60K and at the local bottom (once again). This is no coincidence. It’s the most reliable indicator I know (and it doesn’t appear on any chart). And it keeps happening: 95% of people feel the market. 5% read it. Which side are you on?
It’s OFFICIAL: The cabinet approved the 2027 budget today 🇩🇪 And you should pay very close attention to what’s in it. 204 billion euros in new debt—the second-highest level of new borrowing in German history. And how do they plan to finance this? A plastic fee. Higher tobacco taxes. Higher alcohol taxes. Even sparkling wine will become more expensive. And: the crypto tax. Firmly planned at one billion euros; according to reports, the Finance Ministry internally expects up to three billion euros from eliminating the holding period. Let that sink in: They’re taking on 204 billion euros in debt—and YOUR savings are supposed to fill the holes. Many haven’t realized this yet: The law doesn’t even exist yet. First reading is in September, vote by end of November, Bundesrat approval on December 18. The Union is opposed, and the constitutional question remains open. They’re pushing it through—but nothing is finalized (thankfully). Updates to follow, so feel free to follow.
Everyone living in Germany and holding crypto should listen very carefully right now. Yesterday, the federal government published the draft budget for 2027, and it clearly states in black and white: The one-year holding period is being eliminated. Many didn’t notice: Just a few weeks ago, the Greens proposed exactly this—but it failed in the Finance Committee. Rejected by votes from CDU/CSU, AfD, and SPD. And who is now bringing the abolition directly into the cabinet? The SPD-led Ministry of Finance. Voted against it, then introduced it themselves. Specifically planned: Cryptocurrency assets will be classified as capital income. Every sale will be taxable, regardless of whether you hold for one month or ten years. The draft justifies this with the exact wording: “Increase in tax revenues.” 🤡 But it gets “better”: On Monday, the cabinet will decide on your taxes. On Tuesday, the NATO summit begins, where, according to Merz, another billion-euro commitment is planned. What a time to be alive.
This is sometimes the most striking theory about MicroStrategy I’ve ever heard—and it makes incredible sense! Bitcoin’s biggest risk isn’t a crash; it’s stagnation. Saylor’s STRC structure isn’t endangered when Bitcoin simply crashes, but when Bitcoin moves sideways for YEARS, and the bear market drags on indefinitely. The market can survive a sharp drop as long as it still believes in the next rally. But prolonged stagnation kills. It weakens demand, pressures the MSTR premium, and dries up Saylor’s entire system (just look at the stock). Even now, Saylor’s BTC purchases appear more like a liquidity drain than a true price driver. In other words: fresh capital flows in, but only changes ownership of the coins without pushing the price higher. The numbers are brutal: Over two years, the realized valuation rose by $467 billion, yet the price fell by 1%. And now comes the real point: The old narratives no longer hold sway. “Digital gold” attracted those seeking protection from inflation. The cypherpunk vision embodied independence and decentralization. ETFs and sovereign reserves recently brought institutional legitimacy. But all these stories are slowly running out of steam. And even if Saylor’s credit story works and pushes Bitcoin higher, it won’t be rising because of the values Bitcoin once stood for. Bitcoin could rise—and still lose its soul. Because a market doesn’t live on capital alone. It lives on belief, participation, and relevance. And that’s exactly where the problem lies: Bitcoin doesn’t just need the next catalyst. It needs a new reason for everyone to believe again. (Credits: @cryptoquant_com / @ki_young_ju 🤝)
