The crypto market has exceeded our expectations for most of this year. The most important call was the bottom in February, followed by June and then the summer rally into the midterms just to stimulated investors. Like said this is a "market rally" not a sustainable bull run like most were saying, simply because the environment isn’t ready yet. But it soon will be, essentially if we see a macro-political pivot point where power will be shared. Meanwhile the Fed will begin another round of cuts in 2027, and that would be a late-cycle environment where risk assets can outperform as money will flow. Now that we are ahead of the midterms, we have had both the rally and the correction, which can act as a pivot depending on the result. Basically long story short, it will be neutral to bullish if they share power, or bearish if one party wins everything. Structurally we are at the midterm trend reversal, which was reclaimed in August leaving a big gap behind, and since we are back at that gap is still acting as support above it, but if lost coming from the bearish case in the pivot, then we would plunge into the 670B ish area to print a macro triple bottom, while ETH goes below 2K which is the level I was watching to buy some more. And a quick message for the underprepared, because I’m sure someone is suffering right now, saying "Oh my God why is crypto in a correction?", "Altcoins will never perform again", "We don’t have time", and all that nonsense. Well, hear me out, you don’t have to make a big deal out of it because a correction would have happened whether we liked it or not. If it hadn’t come now it would have come later, and the impact would have been the same. Instead since the market is still providing these beautiful entries on many strong assets why not take advantage of them and DCA some more until the environment is ready so you can make even more?, essentially after the next 3 months or so.
If these levels hold this week, we are free to send it higher afterwards without needing to weaken the structure and delever the system further. The very important levels to pay attention to are 80/81 to the upside, and if it fails here we’re eyeing 71/73, which is the trend reversal point we flipped in August. Either way patience I would say,since October came with bearish volatility ahead of the midterms. I still lean towards a bounce back up in November into early/mid December, after which we would experience a larger correction, not like the ones we have right now of only 12% or -8% in September.
Drama queens give me my ETH under 2k again so I can lie back over the coming years as evryone will suffer again that ETH is under 2k, but we simply follow the plan we had with a rally in the summer, a distribution in Q4, and a generational entry later on. Essentially, before mid February with both the current local top and the local bottom being in, as investors prepare for several cuts in 2027 and flip back toward a soft landing. Besides that like said, I personally don’t think either scenario will play out across the timeline. What I mean by that is: 1) we won’t follow the 2025 case, where we bottomed and pushed straight to a new ATH in the summer, and 2) I don’t think we’ll go under 1k either. Instead, I expect a volatile double bottom where we retest this year’s local lows under 2k, and from there we get back up very quickly as we push for a new ATH. Right now, though, on the lower timeframe there’s still a month or so of setup after the midterms, so volatility will be insane both up and down, similar to what the fractal is showing.
We are a few days ahead of a macropolitical pivot point where like said, I’m still expecting the Republicans to lose power in the second half of Trump mandate, in simple words here are the scenarios. If the Republicans win everything again, it will be full of uncertainty, as it has been until now, with the market remaining neutral to bullish. If power is shared, with half going to the Republicans and half to the Democrats, Trump won’t have as much power, and uncertainty will ease over the coming two years after the first three to six months, with a neutral to bullish market impact. If the Democrats win both the House of Representatives and the Senate, Trump might get impeached later on, and the market impact will be bearish. The scenario I lean towards is the second one, not too bad but not too good either. Its impact will only be felt after the next three to six months, and in the meantime the pressure for deals will continue. Remember, the market structure right now remains neutral to bullish for both Bitcoin and SPX500. So I’m still expecting a bounce after the midterms, followed by a larger correction later on if Trump decides to attack and put pressure on once again. Meanwhile, the Fed will hike interest rates before flipping towards cuts in 2027. For Bitcoin and crypto as a whole, I still see pullbacks as buying opportunities. The trend has been clear since earlier this year, when Bitcoin falls altcoins stay largely unaffected and hold up better. That is positive and can lead to a sustainable run for altcoins in 2027 towards Aug/Sept. For ETH, the levels I was watching are simple above 3,000 take profits and look for shorts, and under 2,000 another lifetime opportunity to buy meanwhile it puts a macro double bottom and swing longs for a great trade. For SPX under 6,800 towards 6,500 remains my macro interes area to put in another macro higher low before sending it back and strong most of 2027.
This is what we are looking for on the LTF right now for Bitcoin. This can translate into a PO3 after reclaiming 80k, but in the meantime remember that selling pressure will persist, so we could move lower this week also simply because we are in the timeframe I highlighted before for a pivot low somewhere between the FOMC and the midterms and structurally we are under 80k. Either way, the trend for Bitcoin remains constructive to bullish in the mid term, because we broke the bearish trend back in August when we reclaimed the 72/73k area, and any pullback above that level should be absorbed by buyers, whether we go down to sweep the liquidity under A and tap 73k or simply hold here as a higher low, I still think we will translate higher after the midterms, and only after the FOMC in December can we begin talking about a larger pullback to retest the lows or even make new lows.
Instead of bitching around pay attention to what I had to say about the month of October with the bearish volatility forming to reset the sentiment while the structure remains constructive and bullish. All that’s left for this year is another move lower in DVOL to new lows and a new hh for bitcoin on this ltf structure
Only a bum would say that the price of any asset is totally random and nobody knows anything when the price action was screaming from months ago that this remained a possibility and that Bitcoin would put in a leverage flush before heading higher again. Meanwhile our timeline we focused on a pivot low around the FOMC and the midterms which remains in play. I really don’t see why there’s such big drama out of nothing, and trust me this is nothing compared to when Bitcoin will make new lows.
We are still hanging around the LTF bullish EMAs which are acting as support until proven otherwise. This means scalping longs on the LTF remains favorable with a tight SL. Beyond that, as I mentioned previously DVOL is still in a very bearish trend below the weekly 21 EMA, with no cross between any of the EMAs. This means Bitcoin remains in control and is leading the market for now. Therefore Bitcoin PA won’t flip bearish until DVOL remains negative, and the LTF trend remains constructive and bullish for the assets, with higher highs and higher lows. From my point of view, this trend will resolve higher once the dust settles on the upcoming news from the FOMC and the midterms, whre we will eventually put in new highs before actually moving lower and Bitcoin losing its control, as altcoins become the spotlight after the shift. IMO most of 2027 will be about altcoins and ETH, not Bitcoin.