Gonna say it again, short of DXY going on a rampage, this is not a chart that wants 3500 (red path). Happy to be wrong. I'm still expecting a low in the next few weeks. We're already in the timing band for the half 8 year cycle low and 10 months into the retrace from the blow off top - which was actually completed in July. Subject to the DXY cycle, every dip is now a bottom candidate, including the potential deviation price is attempting to print right now. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on the orange path.
It's really horses for courses. Trading or investing. I'm assuming Arthur moves in and out of positions freely, which suggests a swing trader's outlook on the next few weeks. Personally, I'd be happy to jump out of equities, BTC and gold till mid-November based purely on cycles and TA. Unless of course he sees a bigger correction imminent, which many experts are expecting, but the timing on that is unclear - it could be now or it could be early next year. It's already been kicked down the road a few times. Bitcoin is a little trickier - do we get the 0.618 in the next 2-3 weeks as per normal, or does it front run. Investors should buy dips and DCA unless they can reliably predict a 20% drop, but otherwise leave the timing risk to the traders.
I like the conviction, but we need to be wary of terminology and the ONE thing that the binary thinking polarised camps on CT find most difficult to comprehend... that more than one idea can be true at the same time. eg: from a 4 year cycle standpoint, everything is fine. it never needed to be October, nor 4 years for that matter (everything has happened within the timing windows, save for no FTX black swan so far this time), and any self-respecting cycle analyst knows the 4 year cycle likely exists within a larger cycle, perhaps 20 or 24 years, which means that the 4 year cycle eventually left translates to reveal the longer cycle. If anyone wants to explore this with an open mind, just have a look at the gradual leftward shift of the cycle tops and bottoms so far, particularly recently. It should be no surprise what's coming. Currently, I'd put better than even odds on the next cycle being the one that left translates, which could produce a dramatic rise to an early top in 18-24 months. Which matches up with all the charts posted by the mid cycle dip/supercycle bros (who I think are reading what is probably going to happen correctly but are hell bent on inventing a new brand name for whatever they think they are seeing). So you're right, it's not news, nor is it really added value. But it is likely, whatever people want to call it. The bit people seem to have trouble understanding is it also existed in the 4 year cycle theory. We've been waiting to be able to measure it - if and when it happens, knowing that it ushers in a new paradigm with the new forces we've seen introduced the last 4 years likely overwhelming the old cycle mechanics, even if it is still running behind the scenes, until we just can't see it on the chart anymore.
This is beautiful charting, thank you. It addresses the question everyone is asking - do we get the usual wave 5 retrace to around the 0.618 or even the 0.5? (69-72.6k). I currently think whatever level you want is going to be front run, but there's a good chance of getting the 0.382 because market makers are going to be incentivised to get the liquidations just under 74.9. Subject to equities and black swans of course. If equities finally roll over and start dumping, then we might get the traditional fib levels, but price action since 20 August says take whatever dip you can get.
Your point is good. Depends on the leverage you have available at your broker, therefore the additional funds required for margin over and above the drawdown. Eg, if trading BTC on 100-200x or more, the margin required by the broker is negligible, so there's no real advantage to the funded prop account. But if your broker is only giving you 10-20x, you've got a lot more funds tied up at the broker that you could be putting to better use.