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Analyst Perspectives on the Semiconductor Market and Crypto Outlook

ME News report, November 5 (UTC+8): Trader degentrading (@degentradingLSD) released pre-market analysis. Regarding semiconductors, he noted that the sector is saturated with long positions trapped at a loss; unless a painful liquidation event occurs and triggers a V-shaped rebound, any rally will be capped by sell orders near breakeven levels. Another possible path is corporate buybacks, and prior to the expiration of related CHIPS Act restrictions on December 9, only MU has the capacity to execute such a move. Citing Citrini’s view, he stated that the growth rate of AI capital expenditures has peaked, but spending itself will not cease—only slow down. He personally believes that when growth is priced at zero, any positive surprise can generate new upward momentum, thus identifying long opportunities, while acknowledging that the stock price may not have bottomed yet and could still decline further. On AI compute infrastructure, he pointed out that on the previous trading day, cloud giants rose approximately 10% while semiconductors fell about 10%, with the market largely attributing this to potential delays in U.S. data center construction, thereby increasing the value of existing chips. H100 rental rates rose 26% year-over-year, GB200 increased by 50%, and ORCL disclosed that its AI infrastructure utilization reached 98%—all contradicting expectations of compute depreciation. Regarding Chinese tech stocks, he suggested that BABA’s ~10% rally may mark a turning point; if China introduces further policy measures, it could trigger a strong reversal, especially given that Chinese tech valuations are at historical lows. In the crypto market, he noted that BTC showed strong performance and ZEC held its gains, with industry tailwinds returning as capital flows away from government-aligned entities. Under expectations of more hostile crypto policies, regulatory pressure may instead strengthen the crypto narrative, while policy support could undermine its core base of supporters. (Source: ChainCatcher)

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