
NVIDIA is an amazing company. But over the long term, I think they are more vulnerable than people think. Competition from startups is to be expected, and there are plenty of startups building a broad range of chips. And they're raising huge rounds to fund this development. What you typically don't see is competition that comes from your customers. That's exactly what NVIDIA is facing. And this co-opetition happens to come from the largest and fastest growing corporations in the world. -Google’s is building high-performance TPUs, whose TCO is estimated to be 44% cheaper than GB200s. -AWS has Trainium, whose performance and energy efficiency increases tremendously with each release. -Microsoft has deployed Maia 200, an inference-focused accelerator built on a 3nm process with 216GB of high-bandwidth memory. -OpenAI is developing custom chips with Broadcom, with initial deployment planned for this year. It’s also planning to buy Google TPUs. -Anthropic is earlier in their chip dev process, but it already trains and runs models on Google TPUs and AWS Trainium alongside NVIDIA GPUs. These companies know exactly which workloads they need to run and can design chips to optimize their own models. I'm not going as far to say NVIDIA is cooked, but IMO they are at risk over the long term