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KuCoin News 2026-11-04 02:10 UTC

Crypto Daily Market Report – November 4, 2026

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Tech Stocks Rebound as BTC Holds Around $77,000

🔍 Key Insights

📊 Market Overview

U.S. tech stocks rebounded on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq rising 0.83% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.36%. AI and semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia, led the recovery, while AMD’s better-than-expected earnings eased some concerns over returns on AI investment. However, uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Iran negotiations and vote counting in the U.S. midterm elections kept risk appetite in check. Crypto markets remained rangebound: BTC briefly recovered toward $78,000 before retreating to the $77,000 level, while ETH fluctuated around $2,300. On the fund-flow side, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded $399 million in net outflows on November 2, marking a second consecutive trading day of substantial withdrawals and suggesting institutional buying remained cautious. Near-term attention centers on BTC support at $76,000–$76,600, with resistance at $79,500–$80,500. Midterm election results and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will be the main market drivers. Reduced post-election uncertainty and improving ETF flows could support further recovery; otherwise, another pullback remains possible.
BTC: $77,451.90 (+0.84%); ETH: $2,274.79 (+0.96%); Nasdaq: 25,372.01 (+0.83%); S&P 500: 7,568.96 (+0.37%); Fear & Greed Index: 34 (previous: 26).Data as of November 4, 2026, 00:00 UTC.

🧠 Market Insights

Binance’s investigation traces the attack to a compromised software supply chain and fake recruitment schemes. The attack dates back to June, when a wallet-team engineer searching for AI coding tools downloaded a tampered Homebrew installer, compromising a work device. In September, the attackers impersonated a project lead, an HR representative, and a company CEO, using fake interviews and coding tests to persuade another engineer to download malicious code. On October 20, they used compromised computers and internal AI tools to gain control of additional wallet engineers’ devices and steal deployment privileges. They ultimately breached the wallet-signing system on October 29 and transferred approximately $6.34 billion in assets. Around $2.85 billion has since been frozen or intercepted, and 98% of the affected token assets have been replenished. DefiLlama data showed Binance’s rolling 24-hour flows briefly turning positive at approximately $1.6 billion, although seven-day net outflows still stood at around $11.9 billion. Outflow pressure has eased, but the attack exposed security risks involving employee devices, internal AI tools, and wallet authorization controls. Independent security audits, recovery of the remaining assets, and the sustainability of returning inflows remain key areas to watch.
Markets remain cautious as U.S. midterm vote counting begins, with congressional control in focus. The U.S. held its midterm elections on November 3, with states closing polls and beginning to count ballots. During the election, Polymarket implied approximately a 94% probability of Democrats winning control of the House and a 76% probability of winning the Senate. Kalshi reflected similar expectations, but the final results remained unconfirmed. The election will shape congressional control for the next two years and influence the progress of crypto legislation, including the CLARITY Act. In markets, implied volatility for short-dated BTC options had risen well above longer-dated maturities, reflecting hedging against election-related price swings. Sentiment remains cautious: election results may shift policy expectations and risk appetite, but are unlikely to determine BTC’s direction on their own. Vote counts, ETF flows, and U.S. equity performance will help indicate whether markets can stabilize as uncertainty recedes.

🔥 Alpha Token Performance

RUNE: After coming under pressure from the use of THORChain to move stolen funds across chains and disputes over node-level risk controls, RUNE staged a rebound from oversold levels, gaining nearly 13% over 24 hours.
HOT: The HoloFuel network recently went live and opened 1:1 conversion between HOT and HoloFuel. Progress on the network migration drew market attention, with HOT rising nearly 20% over 24 hours.
FLUID: Fluid recently opened limited testing of DEX V2, introducing features including customizable collateral and debt price ranges and dynamic fees. The developments attracted market attention, with FLUID gaining more than 10% over 24 hours.

Macroeconomy

Middle East: Trump said he was satisfied with the current stalemate with Iran but remained prepared to act, while indirect negotiations continued. Iran demanded a clear U.S. response to seven conditions and said there had been no new progress in negotiations, with the parties continuing to exchange information through mediators. Qatari mediators held further talks with Iran on Monday and said Washington and Tehran were reviewing their latest proposals, with responses expected within 36 hours.
Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85%, an 18-year high.

Industry Developments

The CFTC chairman announced that U.S. equity perpetual contracts could be listed on regulated U.S. exchanges. Cboe, Citadel Securities, and others sued the CFTC to overturn its approval of single-stock perpetual contracts.
Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission said it aims to connect tokenized funds with digital currencies and plans to pilot a tokenized gold ETF.
Thailand’s SEC opened a public consultation on draft licensing rules for digital asset derivatives.
South Korean regulators plan to raise the required share of exchange assets held in cold wallets from 80% to approximately 99%.
A Polymarket subsidiary received NFA approval for registration as a futures commission merchant, with CFTC approval still pending.
Ethereum’s leanVM completed end-to-end formal verification, with the full transition to post-quantum security targeted for December 2028.

Week Ahead

November 4: U.S. October ISM Services Index; U.S. October ADP Employment Change; eurozone October CPI; Circle and AMD earnings; MMT unlock equivalent to 294.38% of circulating supply, worth approximately $32.3 million.
November 5: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 31; Bank of England policy rate decision; Bank of Japan’s September monetary policy meeting minutes; Qualcomm and Coherent earnings; ENA unlock equivalent to 0.7% of circulating supply, worth approximately $17.7 million.
November 6: U.S. October nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate; Lumentum earnings.
November 8: STABLE unlock equivalent to 4.93% of circulating supply, worth approximately $23.01 million; AVAX unlock equivalent to 0.3% of circulating supply, worth approximately $14.7 million.