Midterms update: 11 hours of trading and the blue wave is still priced in. Odds Democrats take the Senate: 75.5%, from 76.5% this morning. It dipped to 72.5% at 18:30 UTC and was bought straight back. The House holds at 94.5%. A full Democratic sweep slipped to 72% from 75%. The money moved inside the map, not on control: Michigan -5 to 75.5% for El-Sayed, the biggest drop of the day Maine -3 to 70.5% Iowa -2 to 50.5%, now a pure coin flip Kansas +2 to 64.5% and Texas +1 to 75.5%, both still leaning blue Our read: a Republican Senate hold still trades near 1 in 4, and that path runs through Texas and Kansas. Ohio and North Carolina close at 00:30 UTC, then Texas, Michigan, Maine and Kansas at 01:00. The odds of an AP Senate call by midnight ET fell to 48.5% from 56%, so expect a long night. $BTC $77,934, up 1.4% on the day, with the VIX down to 20.83. https://t.co/zkOTsBfy4I