🇺🇸 In recent weeks, financial markets have already priced in a Democratic sweep in the US midterms. Prediction markets now give Democrats a 95% chance of winning the House and a 76% chance of taking the Senate. In other words, a Democratic sweep is largely expected. But here’s where things get interesting. Historically, the sitting president’s party almost always loses ground in the midterms. And what happens to financial markets afterward is extraordinary. In all 21 midterm elections since 1942, the S&P 500 has delivered a positive return over the following 12 months. 21 out of 21. An average gain of 16.6%. Not a single negative period in over 80 years. History doesn’t guarantee the future, but that’s one hell of a track record.