As Bitcoin attempts to hold its ground around $78,000, the upcoming week brings a convergence of events: the U.S. midterm elections, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve, and the release of employment data. To interpret this landscape from the perspective of an individual investor, it is necessary to examine both historical data and current technical levels.

Historical Pattern: Declines During Election Years, Recovery the Following Year

Following the last three midterm elections, 12-month returns reached 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3%, respectively—an average of 53.7%. However, the election years themselves were largely characterized by bear markets. A significant detail is that the time elapsed between the election and the market bottom has shortened with each cycle: 71 days in 2014, 39 days in 2018, and only 13 days in 2022.$BTC