https://t.co/G8vEQTjck8 I was considering buying property in Dubai, but decided against it. #OverseasRelocation #Dubai #NewZealand Overseas Y Papa Radio: Understanding the World #AISummary Is now the right time to invest in Dubai real estate? Price declines due to the Iran war and structural market risks 🔳 Conclusion: There’s no need to rush into investing in Dubai real estate The speaker argues that for investors who do not plan to live in Dubai, there is currently no need to purchase property. The price correction triggered by the war may have just begun, and future downside risks should be closely monitored. 🔳 92% of Dubai’s population are foreigners According to the speaker, 92% of Dubai’s population are foreigners, with only 8% being nationals. Many residents are drawn by economic incentives such as tax benefits and visa policies, creating a structure where population outflows can occur rapidly if conditions deteriorate. 🔳 Dubai real estate is vulnerable to speculative capital flows The speaker compares this dynamic—where people and capital concentrate under favorable conditions but flee quickly when conditions worsen—to a “locust tower.” If wealthy investors withdraw, the ripple effects could impact employment and housing demand across related sectors. 🔳 The 30% drop in the real estate index differs from actual property prices The nearly 30% decline occurred in the DFM Real Estate Stock Index, which is composed of shares of real estate development companies. According to the speaker, actual property prices have only dropped by approximately 4–7%, and these two metrics should not be confused. ◙ Real estate market deterioration lags behind stock market trends The speaker notes that real estate transaction volumes increased by 5.5% year-over-year and transaction values rose by 23.4% in Q1 2026. However, since real estate prices take longer to adjust, it is premature to judge market resilience based solely on current transaction data. ◙ Concerns over reduced flight capacity and tightening financing conditions The speaker highlights a 68% reduction in flight capacity, financial institutions considering evacuating staff, and six corporate bonds from real estate developers reaching crisis levels, indicating mounting downward pressure on the market. ◙ Real estate bubble concerns existed even before the war According to the speaker, Dubai rose from 14th to 5th place in UBS’s 2025 Global Real Estate Bubble Index. Over the past five years, property prices have surged by more than 50%, and overvaluation was already widely noted prior to the war. ◙ Past recoveries after crashes do not guarantee a similar outcome this time During the 2008 financial crisis, prices fell by 50–60% and took 4–5 years to recover. After the pandemic, prices dropped about 10% and rebounded within 18 months. However, this correction follows an elevated price level, so a similar recovery path cannot be assumed. ◙ Increased new supply in 2026 will also exert downward pressure Approximately 120,000 new housing units are scheduled for completion in 2026. With housing demand weakening due to the war, increased supply could worsen the supply-demand imbalance and further depress prices. ◙ Declining trust in safety poses a long-term risk The speaker cites Beirut, Lebanon—after its civil conflict—as an example of a city where loss of perceived safety led to prolonged real estate market recovery. If Dubai’s reputation as a safe place to live is damaged, recovery could be significantly delayed. ◙ Risk varies by area Markets with long-term residents differ in stability from those reliant on short-term speculative capital. While acknowledging regional differences, the speaker maintains that the overall structural risk—dependence on foreign residents—remains. ◙ Key factors for investment decisions: purpose of residence and price attractiveness The speaker concludes that if you have no intention of living in Dubai, there is no compelling reason to invest in its unstable market. At present, sufficient price undervaluation has not been confirmed; investors should wait and carefully observe further price adjustments and shifts in supply-demand dynamics.