THORChain Halts Swaps. What Next for RUNE?
RUNE spiked toward $0.69 after news of the Binance hack, then gave back most of it and fell about 15% on November 2. It is trading around $0.52 to $0.57 and has a market cap of about $190M (estimate).
That is roughly 97% below its all-time high of $21.26. Check the live price before trading.
LATEST NEWS AND EVENTS
- On October 31, THORChain halted swaps on 10 networks, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. A refund bug after an Ethereum reorg left a vault 10 ETH short and triggered the emergency stop. The latest reports I found gave no restart date. THORChain warned the flaw is a risk to its vaults.
- Chainalysis said the pause accidentally delayed North Korean laundering of the $6.3B stolen from Binance on October 29.
- The FBI asked THORChain node operators to block addresses tied to the hack. THORChain was one of the exit routes, with reports putting the amount between $31M and $44M.
Its co-founder did not commit to blocking, saying node operators see only public data.
- THORChain now sends 59% of fees to nodes, 20% to protocol-owned liquidity, 10% to TCY stakers, 5% to the developer fund, 5% to marketing and 1% to the RUNE burn. The burn was cut from 5%.
- Macro: Bitcoin fell to about $78K after the hack, the Fed held rates with a hawkish tone last week, and US midterm elections are today.
TOKENOMICS
- Total supply: about 354M RUNE. The original 1B was cut to 500M, then to about 354M.
- All RUNE is released. There are no vesting schedules or locked allocations, so there is no unlock overhang.
- About 2.1M RUNE has been burned since the burn started. Block rewards ended in February 2025, so supply now only goes down.
- Protocol fees were about $14.9M over 12 months, against a market cap of about $190M.
- RUNE is needed in every pool. Nodes bond RUNE to secure the network, and fees are paid in RUNE. TCY is a separate token that shares 10% of revenue.
DEEP ANALYSIS
1. RUNE's value depends on swap fees. A halt means no swaps, so no fees. The longer it lasts, the more revenue and trust are lost.
2. The bug is a security issue, not just downtime. THORChain itself warned about vault risk. Any vault loss would hit the price hard.
3. Laundering flows may have generated fees, but they bring regulatory and reputational pressure. Revenue from illicit flows is not a healthy long-term driver.
4. THORChain cannot easily force independent nodes to block addresses. That is the design, and it is also why it keeps getting scrutiny.
5. The burn is small now at 1%, and more fees go to liquidity and nodes. The token has no unlock risk, but it also has less deflation.
6. The 13% news pump and the 15% drop show traders are reacting to headlines, not fundamentals.
KEY LEVELS
Support: $0.50, then a wide and weak zone from $0.51 down to $0.34.
Resistance: $0.52, then $0.57, then $0.61 to $0.64 (broken support), then $0.67 to $0.74.
FUTURE SCENARIOS (not predictions)
Bull: Swaps restart smoothly with no vault loss, and price reclaims $0.57 and then $0.61 to $0.64. The October 31 spike area at $0.67 to $0.74 is next.
Base: Price ranges between $0.50 and $0.57 while the market waits for the restart and the post-election mood.
Bear: A daily close below $0.50 opens a thin support zone, with $0.34 as the deeper level. An extended halt, a vault exploit or regulatory action could trigger it.
RISK
Swaps are halted, the news is moving fast, and a security flaw is open. Avoid high leverage, use a stop-loss, and keep position size small.
Will THORChain recover its trust after this halt? Bull, base or bear? Comment below.
Not financial advice. Crypto is very risky. Do your own research.
