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Investors are dumping US Neocloud stocks at a furious pace: The Roundhill Neocloud ETF, $NCLD , is down -32% since its August 2026 debut. It has now cratered -42% from its peak, to near its record low. Meanwhile, put options tied to CoreWeave, $CRWV , surged to record levels in October. Notably, some of the most popular contracts expire in 2028 and pay out if the stock falls to $35, compared with a share price of ~$55 currently. At the same time, the cost of protecting against debt defaults at Amazon, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle has risen to its highest level since 2021. Oracle has seen an especially sharp repricing, with its credit-default spreads widening by more than +1 percentage point. The growing demand for downside exposure reflects concerns about debt-financed data-center projects and purchases of AI chips, as well as the possibility of slowing AI demand and falling computing prices. Nevertheless, the broader AI trade still remains crowded, even as more participants position for a potential collapse in the neocloud business model. The AI Trade is cracking from all directions.

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