
US Treasury borrowing has reached UNPRECEDENTED levels: US officials sold a record $839 billion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds last week, with weekly auctions now regularly exceeding half a trillion Dollars. This figure was the sum of the 11 auction sizes, and the majority of it went to repay holders of maturing bills. Meanwhile, with annual federal deficits running at a massive ~$2 trillion, investors are watching for a major shift in the Treasury's borrowing strategy, potentially involving fewer long-term bonds and even more short-term debt. For instance, Citigroup expects cuts to 20-year and 30-year bond sales starting this month. The shift toward short-term borrowing is already evident, with Treasury bills accounting for ~22% of outstanding US debt in September, way above the 15-16% seen before 2020. This is also above the 20% average recommended by the Treasury's advisory committee. However, greater reliance on short-term bills means more frequent refinancing, leaving the Treasury increasingly exposed to changes in investor demand and interest rates. With 30-year Treasury yields still above 5.25%, investors are now bracing for Wednesday's November 4th quarterly refunding announcement, which could reveal whether the Treasury plans to reduce long-term bond sales and shift even more borrowing toward short-term debt. The US public debt crisis is back in investors' focus.

