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Before valuing a memory contract, ask who carries the downside. SK hynix says agreements with 14 major customers cover volumes equivalent to more than half its 2027-2028 total production capacity. Prices can respond to market conditions within agreed ranges. That is not a guarantee of half its future revenue, or an HBM-only figure. The release does not disclose numerical price bands, cancellation penalties or minimum-payment terms. Micron goes further in its disclosures: its strategic customer agreements have take-or-pay volumes, and many have price floors and ceilings. We should not assume SK hynix has identical protection. My interpretation: customers are committing earlier to secure supply, giving manufacturers a firmer basis for investment. But greater confidence can also encourage the expansion that eventually weakens pricing. I would judge the shift by how much earnings and cash remain protected when supply catches up, not by contract length alone. Longer agreements can change who bears the memory cycle without making the cycle disappear.

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