Liquidity is offering some surface relief, but the underlying regime is still selective rather than broadly risk-on. The dollar eased into the latest close, with DXY near 101.9 on 30 October. Treasury yields also moved lower that day: the 2-year finished around 4.56% and the 10-year around 4.94%. That direction helps risk assets at the margin, yet the absolute level of long yields remains restrictive for duration and speculative demand. The more important signal is in the plumbing. Federal Reserve data for the week ended 28 October show total assets down about $8 billion. Reserve balances held by depository institutions fell roughly $74 billion, while the Treasury General Account rose about $70 billion to $1.016 trillion. The Daily Treasury Statement then showed the TGA at $1.040 trillion on 29 October. A rising Treasury cash balance can drain liquidity from the banking system at the margin, even when markets are getting some relief from a softer dollar and lower yields. Digital-asset liquidity is not confirming a broad expansion either. DefiLlama shows stablecoin market capitalization near $296.2 billion on 1 November, down 1.37% over seven days and 2.65% over thirty days. That contraction matters because stablecoins are one of the clearest observable pools of deployable on-chain dollar liquidity. Regime: Restrictive / Selective Liquidity Score: 44/100 Market Outlook: Neutral-to-defensive The score is an editorial composite of dollar direction, Treasury yields, central-bank balance-sheet conditions and stablecoin supply. The next positive confirmation would require more than one friendly market move: reserves stabilizing, the TGA no longer rebuilding, the 10-year yield moving lower, DXY remaining below roughly 102 and stablecoin supply turning positive again. Until those signals align, liquidity can support tactical rebounds without validating a durable, broad risk-on regime.