October is supposed to be Bitcoin's month. Crypto even has a name for it, "Uptober", and for most of the last decade it earned it. Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed October in the red only four times: 2014, 2018, 2025 and this year, down a little over 7%. What happened next in the other three years is the part I keep coming back to. December closed red every time, and November did in two of the three. Two of those years, 2014 and 2018, are also the same midterm years I compared in my post last month. I'm not reading that as a forecast. Three examples is far too few to build a trade on, and the market today looks very different from 2014 or 2018. But none of those red Octobers got rescued by the end of the year, so I wouldn't count on seasonality to bail this one out.