
ECB President Lagarde identified hyper-scalers’ bond issuance as one of the reasons for rising long-term interest rates. Insurance companies and pension funds have traditionally been the buyers of 30- and 40-year bonds. Their allocation to U.S. Treasuries has fallen to the lowest level since the 1950s (BofA). Yet, both the U.S. Treasury and Big Tech are simultaneously flooding the market with ultra-long-term bonds targeting the same investors. Data centers are ultimately built with debt. Transformers, cooling systems, and buildings are decades-long assets requiring decades-long funding. As interest rates rise, construction becomes more difficult, and those who can secure cheaper electricity and cooling gain the advantage. At its core, AI is ultimately a problem of electricity, cooling, and capital.
