Two days until the midterms, and the Iran war is in its eighth month. Trump has repeatedly said the fighting will end soon after November 3 and that oil prices will fall once it does. But the Pentagon has reportedly drawn up strike plans for after the election, and officials have reportedly told Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense campaign. Diplomacy has stalled, and I couldn't confirm any new agreement. Oil has swung above and below $100 a barrel since September, with the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted. Markets have not moved in a simple pattern. Stocks have at times held near records despite high oil prices. Watch for any strike authorization, Iran's response to U.S. proposals, and how oil and Wall Street react after the results.

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