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<p>Here's an animated version of what I believe is a more reliable look forward (again, not a definite 'prediction')

If we measure price's deviations from the 0.15 quantile power law instead of the median, my out-of-sample testing shows a much more stable slope and better forecasts.

With that as the anchor, here's every Monte Carlo since 2018 - each refit using only the data available at the time - against how price actually played out.

Median for 2034: ~$1.26M. Nearly 2 in 3 runs finish above $1M, and 95% hit it at some point along the way.

Still pointing to > $1M in 2034.

NFA</p>

Here's an animated version of what I believe is a more reliable look forward (again, not a definite 'prediction')
If we measure price's deviations from the 0.15 quantile power law instead of the median, my out-of-sample testing shows a much more stable slope and better forecasts.
With that as the anchor, here's every Monte Carlo since 2018 - each refit using only the data available at the time - against how price actually played out.
Median for 2034: ~$1.26M. Nearly 2 in 3 runs finish above $1M,

Here's an animated version of what I believe is a more reliable look forward (again, not a definite 'prediction') If we measure price's deviations from the 0.15 quantile power law instead of the median, my out-of-sample testing shows a much more stable slope and better forecasts. With that as the anchor, here's every Monte Carlo since 2018 - each refit using only the data available at the time - against how price actually played out. Median for 2034: ~$1.26M. Nearly 2 in 3 runs finish above $1M, and 95% hit it at some point along the way. Still pointing to > $1M in 2034. NFA

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