
The U.S. session just closed, wrapping up a brutal week for tech. The "AI capex reality check" is now a full-blown valuation crisis, and oil is squeezing the rest of the market. The Fed's hawkish hold is a side-show. Earnings and energy are the only things that matter. • Nasdaq: ~29,100 (-2.5% on the day) • S&P 500: ~7,600 (-1.2%) • Dow Jones: ~52,300 (-0.5%) • 10Y Yield: ~4.72% (holding near recent highs) • DXY: ~102.35 (strongest in 10 months) • Brent Crude: ~4,110 (breaking down on strong dollar) • Bitcoin: ~$80,500 (losing the $81K floor) Here's the nuance most headlines will skip. The market is bleeding from two sides. Tech is getting repriced because the AI capex era of "spend now, figure out profit later" is dead. Alphabet was the first domino. Meanwhile, energy is acting as a massive tax on the consumer and the broader economy as Brent pushes toward $115. If the 10-year yield breaks 4.75% into the weekend, the tech selloff will accelerate on Monday. Watch the $80K level on Bitcoin and the 10Y at 4.75%. That's the binary. If tech is repricing and oil is spiking, does the Fed have any choice but to stay hawkish?
