
The U.S. session just closed, and the "AI capex reality check" is officially here. The Fed held rates, but the market focused on the cash burn. Alphabet's $400B wipeout dragged the Nasdaq lower, completely overshadowing the Fed's hawkish dissents. • Nasdaq: -1.85% (Tech crushed by AI capex fears) • S&P 500: -0.94% • Dow Jones: -0.21% (Relatively resilient) • Alphabet (GOOGL): -10% (Worst day in years) • 10Y Yield: ~4.68% (Held below 4.70%) • Fed Funds: 3.75%–4.00% (10-2 hold) • DXY: ~102.16 • Bitcoin: ~$81,200 (Risk-off pressure) Here's the nuance most headlines will skip. The Fed's 10-2 hold was a side show. The real action was the brutal rotation out of mega-cap tech. The market is no longer rewarding A.I. spending for its own sake. Alphabet got punished, and the Nasdaq paid the price. The two hawkish dissents (Cook, Hammack) wanted a hike, but the market is more worried about earnings than rates right now. Watch the 10-year yield at 4.70% and tomorrow's Amazon/Intel earnings. That's the next binary. If the market is punishing AI capex now, what happens when Amazon reports tomorrow?
