The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%. But two dissents (Cook, Hammack) wanted a hike. Meanwhile, Alphabet's AI cash burn wiped $400B in market cap, and Samsung's record profit got sold. The AI trade is facing a reality check. • Fed Funds: 3.75%–4.00% (10-2 vote) • Alphabet: -10% AH (capex concerns) • KOSPI: -2.8% (Samsung -4% despite record profit) • Nikkei: +0.3% • Nasdaq Futures: -1.4% • DXY: ~102.16 • USDJPY: ~157.87 • Brent: ~$114.6 Here's the nuance most headlines will skip. The market is no longer rewarding AI capex for its own sake. Alphabet got punished for burning cash. Samsung's record profit wasn't enough. The Fed's hawkish dissents mean December is still live. If earnings don't justify the spending, the Fed's "higher for longer" becomes a problem for tech valuations. Watch the 10-year yield at 4.70%. Below it, the pause trade holds. Above it, the hawkish dissents win. If AI earnings don't justify the capex, does the Fed's hawkish hold break the trade?