
I think the biggest scam this month isn’t any dump—it’s the very name “Uptober.” Everyone enters October with an almost automatic belief that it will be green, since October has averaged an 18.1% gain since 2020. But what’s the reality? So far this October, the market is down 4.2%, and at risk of becoming the second consecutive negative October. The numbers behind it are even harsher: spot buying demand has been negative since October 14, totaling a net outflow of 76,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Trader profit margins have dropped from 33% to just 8%, meaning the accumulated profit buffer from September has nearly been wiped out. I believe the issue isn’t that October has lost its magic—it’s that the crowd believes in the name more than in the actual money flows. When the entire market bets on a single narrative, that narrative becomes a trap for those who arrive late. Do you still believe in Uptober? Or from now on, do you automatically avoid anyone bringing up history?
