🚨 SoSoValue Flash: Fed Holds Rates Amid Internal Disagreement; Brent Crude Rises to $114.34 Amid Stalled U.S.-Iran Talks; Big Tech Earnings Reveal Divergence in AI Investment Profitability 💥 Key Highlights: 🌍 Macro & Monetary Policy The U.S. Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady at 3.75–4.00%. However, Governors Cook and Hammack voted in favor of a rate hike, opposing the decision. Chair Warsh signaled a dovish stance and announced plans to eliminate forward guidance on future monetary policy. He also noted that overall financial conditions are gradually tightening. Markets are pricing in an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike in December. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is trading near 5.02%. 🌍 Middle East Geopolitics U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations remain stalled. The U.S. government is considering potential military action following the midterm elections, while Saudi Arabia has urged President Trump to grant more time for diplomatic talks. Qatar’s proposed seven-day negotiation framework was rejected, leaving prospects for de-escalation highly uncertain. Amid this backdrop, Brent crude remains elevated at $114.34 per barrel. 💻 Tech & Crypto 🤖 Big Tech earnings revealed a clear divergence in the profitability of AI investments. 📉 Alphabet ($GOOGL) Alphabet, parent company of Google, reported lower-than-expected revenue from cloud and advertising businesses. The CFO acknowledged declining efficiency in monetizing AI-powered search. As a result, shares fell approximately 10% in after-hours trading. 📈 Microsoft ($MSFT) In contrast, Microsoft demonstrated strong growth in its cloud business: - Azure revenue growth: +48% - Free cash flow (FCF): $18.6 billion - After-hours stock price: +2.9% Market sentiment favored Microsoft as its AI investments are translating into tangible cloud revenue gains. In the crypto market, amid heightened volatility, BTC is trading around $81,300. CME BTC futures have shifted into a contango of +0.22% to +0.24%. The implied spot price derived from futures is $81,507. Spot ETF Flows: - BTC ETF: +$176 million net inflow - ETH ETF: -$60 million net outflow 🔍 Shifts in Market Logic: 1️⃣ Brent crude at $114+ and U.S. long-term yields above 5% are capping upside for risk assets Escalating Middle East tensions and persistently high oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns. With the U.S. 10-year yield remaining above 5%, equities and crypto face persistent headwinds. Until uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections is resolved or meaningful progress emerges in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, markets are likely to remain range-bound and directionless. 2️⃣ AI market evaluation shifts from “scale of investment” to “actual profitability” Alphabet and Microsoft’s earnings sharply highlighted divergent market views on AI spending. Alphabet’s struggles with monetizing AI search led to a significant stock decline. Microsoft, by contrast, impressed markets with robust Azure growth and strong FCF. Going forward, simply pouring massive capital into AI infrastructure will no longer suffice—investors will increasingly demand tangible short-term revenue and profit generation. 3️⃣ CME futures contango and BTC ETF inflows provide support for crypto markets BTC ETFs attracted $176 million in net inflows, while CME BTC futures regained a positive premium. This indicates sustained institutional demand for physical BTC despite adverse macro conditions. However, with high interest rates persisting, crypto markets are likely to remain in a range-bound consolidation phase for the near term. 📊 SoDEX Key Assets Watchlist: Core: $USTECH-100 · $CL · $XAUt · $BTC AI Earnings Split & Geopolitics: $GOOGL · $MSFT · $AMZN · $NVDA · BRENTOIL