Fed Holds Rates Steady, Hike Still on the Table: Warsh Signals a “Gradual Fight” and Meeting Changes The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% at its October 27–28 FOMC meeting, as expected. It was Kevin Warsh’s fourth meeting and the final decision before the U.S. midterms, following September’s 25-basis-point hike—the first since July 2023. ━━━ Vote 10–2: Two Members Wanted a Hike Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Governor Lisa Cook dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. It was Hammack’s second pro-hike dissent this year, reflecting continued hawkish pressure. ━━━ Inflation Remains High The Fed said inflation remains elevated and more data are needed to guide policy. Markets interpreted this as meaning a December hike remains possible, but is not certain. ━━━ Warsh: Fighting Inflation Is Gradual Warsh said controlling inflation takes time. Price stability remains the focus, employment is strong, and the midterms did not affect the decision. He gave no clear signal for December. ━━━ Major Change to FOMC Meetings Warsh said eight meetings a year remain appropriate, but not every meeting needs a rate vote. In 2027, one meeting will focus solely on monetary-policy strategy, with no rate vote or statement expected. Rate decisions will be considered at seven meetings in 2027 and six in 2028. ━━━ Inflation, Oil and Yields September inflation was 3.7%, with the last two readings above expectations. Oil is near $100 a barrel, diesel prices have hit records, and the 10-year Treasury yield is just above 5%, down about 36 basis points since October 7. ━━━ Market Reaction Bitcoin reached $81,400 before the decision and held near $81,100 during Warsh’s remarks. The 2-year yield fell from 4.78% to 4.73%, while the DXY hovered near its yearly high of 102.16. ETH, SOL and XRP had also gained over 2%. ━━━ What to Watch The final Fed meeting of the year is scheduled for December 8–9. November inflation and employment data will be key: hotter readings could increase the odds of a hike, while softer data could keep rates unchanged. For crypto, stronger hike expectations could support the dollar and Treasury yields, weighing on risk appetite. Pricing out a December hike could help BTC and altcoins recover. The U.S. midterms add another source of volatility. This content is not investment advice. bitcoin:native #gold ripple:native