WHY ON EARTH ARE WE TALKING ABOUT THE DEFAULT RISK OF ANTHROPIC? A prediction market is taking real money on an Anthropic bankruptcy by 2028. Look at the balance sheet before you take the other side. Anthropic holds $112bn of cash and cash equivalents plus $19bn of short-term investments, $132bn in all. That is the third-largest pile in corporate America, behind Berkshire and Alphabet, ahead of Amazon, SpaceX, Meta and Microsoft. Two things about that cash that nobody has priced. First, it earns. $132bn at a 4% bill yield is roughly $5bn a year of interest income, and that is before anyone counts a token of revenue. The company turned an operating profit of $974m in Q2. Add the yield on the cash and the cash-flow-positive story is not even close; it was already there, and the income on the pile was never part of the calculation. Second, the burn. Over its entire lifetime Anthropic has burned under $13bn of cash, less than a tenth of what it holds today, and the worst year was 2025. So let me make the burn timeline, in a risk scenario, for the people on the other side of that contract. At the Q2 run-rate the pile does not fall at all. At $25bn a year, twice the worst year so far, the cash lasts to 2031. At $50bn a year, four times the worst year, it lasts to 2029. At $100bn a year, the entire compute bill with zero revenue, it lasts past 2027. And in all of this, we haven't even considered that they are about to raise even MORE cash.. The credit/default risk panic around AI is absolutely hysterical.