The Fed’s interest rate decision is due tomorrow morning. A hold on rate hikes is highly likely, but the key will be how Walsh responds. Several Fed officials made密集 statements in October, all conveying a consistent signal: tightening will proceed at a “every-other-meeting” pace—i.e., rate hikes in September, a pause in October, and another hike in December. Previously, New York Fed President John Williams explicitly stated there was “no urgent need for action in October” and hinted that only one more hike remains this year. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested policymakers may need more time to assess data. Governor Waller summarized this stance as: rate hikes “need not occur at consecutive meetings, but should be implemented within a reasonable timeframe.” The September FOMC meeting minutes further confirmed this framework: all 19 officials supported the September hike, and “most” deemed one additional hike this year appropriate. Thus, a hold at this FOMC meeting is highly probable. But Walsh’s view on December’s potential move could be critical: 1) How will Walsh explain his assessment of inflation trends? 2) Will he emphasize that inflation will reinforce curve flattening and push front-end rates higher, or will he stress that tighter financial conditions could re-steepen the yield curve? 3) Will he use language such as, “Any further rate adjustments will depend on data trends, evolving outlooks, and the balance of risks,” or will he remain entirely silent on the policy path? If the Fed indeed holds rates this time while leaving December’s trajectory ambiguous, markets will shift focus to current developments. Tomorrow morning also brings earnings reports from Microsoft and Google—if these reports reveal AI commercialization accelerating faster than expected, we may see a rally ahead of Anthropic’s roadshow.