AI certainly isn’t in a bubble. The bubble is in beer. I’m only willing to call it an overheated investment in AI infrastructure. After all, no one wants to fall behind in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. After all, global internet companies, governments, and capital are all heavily investing in and building out AI. Do you really think everyone is foolishly investing in a bubble? It’s just that the overheated investment in AI infrastructure has caused hardware prices to skyrocket, violating Moore’s Law—the very principle that hardware should become more powerful while becoming cheaper. Performance gains are limited, yet prices have doubled or tripled. In terms of labor efficiency gains, global programmer salaries total roughly $2 trillion. A 10% reduction in workforce would save $200 billion. Combined, OpenAI and Anthropic’s annual recurring revenue doesn’t even reach $200 billion. This doesn’t even account for efficiency gains in pharmaceuticals, administrative work, film production, and other sectors. In 1860, the U.S. fought the Civil War over the control of enslaved labor, when its population was 31 million and farmers exceeded 5 million. With the widespread adoption of agricultural mechanization and large-scale farming, the U.S. now has a population of 340 million—but employs just over 3 million farmers and remains the world’s largest agricultural exporter. AI is not a bubble—just as the tractor appeared, it only makes the world more efficient.