Today, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, has sparked significant buzz in the English-speaking crypto community with this in-depth article—their thesis is clear from the title alone: Now is the best time to accumulate and hold BTC. Unlike purely emotional calls or subjective speculation, the article presents multiple data points from both current and historical cycles, pointing to a classic “cycle bottom confirmation + accumulation phase,” backed by solid reasoning. Here’s a condensed summary: First, on the technical side: - The 200-week moving average has held as a historical bear market support level—a reliable anchor in crypto history. The 50-week moving average reasserted itself in late September and has closed above it for five consecutive weeks. - Historical cases of prolonged breaks followed by a reclamation of these levels have typically led to strong performance over the following year, with few subsequent major breakdowns. - The number of days since the halving has now surpassed the historical bottom window (this cycle’s low occurred ~802 days post-halving; current date is ~916 days; previous lows were near 777, 889, and 912 days respectively). - Additionally, this has been the shallowest bear market on record, with a peak-to-trough decline of only ~53%—compared to previous cycles that saw drops of -77% and -93%. BTC addresses inactive for over five years are now selling at a significantly slower pace. Second, on the capital side, short-term traders have exited: - Macro and arbitrage traders have sharply reduced their ETF and futures exposure; asset managers have cut net long positions by ~57%, and leveraged funds have significantly narrowed their net short positions. - ETF holdings have declined only ~11% from their peak, while Bitcoin’s native price fell much more sharply during the same period—yet net buying resumed after the June low. Non-institutional holders (advisors, family offices, individuals) have seen limited outflows. This suggests that the “tourist capital” that drove the 2025 highs has largely exited, leaving behind a more directional, long-term-oriented holder base. It also explains why recent market shocks this year have failed to trigger major BTC sell-offs. Third, on the fundamental side, the case for monetary debasement continues to strengthen: - U.S. debt stands at ~$40 trillion; the 2026 fiscal deficit is projected at nearly $2 trillion (~6.2% of GDP); interest payments are ~$1.28 trillion; the 10-year Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5%. - AI infrastructure development itself is debt-driven—ultimately financed either through credit expansion or socialized losses—both of which favor fixed-supply hard assets. Fourth, on the sentiment side, we’re back to the familiar refrain: “Talk about innovation, not Bitcoin.” 2015–2016 → “Blockchain, not Bitcoin” 2018–2019 → “Chains, not crypto speculation” 2026 → “Stablecoins and RWA, not Bitcoin” After each major BTC downturn, mainstream institutions and media shift focus away from Bitcoin as an asset toward “safer,” “more legitimate,” and “less scary” technological applications—creating a recurring new narrative. - Search interest remains low; Fear & Greed Index hit extreme lows; ETF inflows this month have been flat—yet BTC price has rebounded ~39% from its low. Stablecoin supply has surged dramatically. Finally, the author notes potential risks that could invalidate this thesis: - Weekly close below the 50-week MA without a swift recovery - ETF holdings breaking below prior lows - A credible quantum computing threat emerges - Major U.S. fiscal consolidation occurs (Our editorial note: You could track these indicators with an AI monitoring system for easier research and investment analysis 😏)