Broadcom: $161.2 billion, Google: $114.5 billion, Amazon: $110 billion! Anthropic has signed over $430 billion in compute contracts—so who’s the biggest winner? The most exciting part of Anthropic’s prospectus for investors may not be its own revenue, but rather the enormous sums it plans to pay others. According to contractual disclosures in the prospectus, Anthropic has entered into staggering long-term commitments to purchase compute resources from several tech giants: approximately $161.2 billion in commitments related to Broadcom ($AVGO), at least $114.5 billion with Google ($GOOGL) through 2033, at least $110 billion with Amazon ($AMZN), and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft ($MSFT). Combined, these four alone total roughly $430.6 billion—not including the previously disclosed SpaceX ($SPCX) compute contract, which could reach up to $120.5 billion. Note that this total is my own sum based on line-item additions from the prospectus; the prospectus itself does not state an aggregate compute commitment figure. A list compiled by the X account StockSavvyShay has been widely shared, as many people realized for the first time that such a large portion of upstream AI supply chain orders is concentrated in a single company that has yet to turn a profit. Let’s examine the significance of each partner. Broadcom’s ~$161.2 billion commitment is the largest, closely tied to its involvement in custom TPU chip design, networking chips, and full-system solutions for Google. Anthropic is one of Google’s largest external TPU users, and since Broadcom participated in TPU design, this funding flows partly to Google Cloud and partly into Broadcom’s custom chip business. Market estimates also suggest an additional $125–150 billion in TPU compute demand between 2028 and 2031, providing strong visibility into Broadcom’s future orders. Google and Amazon are both major shareholders and cloud providers to Anthropic; their compute contracts serve as both revenue streams and create a closed loop between their equity investments and cloud businesses. Microsoft’s $44.9 billion commitment is smaller in scale but ensures Anthropic’s models have a long-term presence within Microsoft’s cloud and product ecosystem. The financing structure is equally noteworthy. The prospectus mentions a special-purpose vehicle (SPV) of approximately $63 billion created to finance compute infrastructure: Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley provide first-lien loans; Blackstone provides second-lien capital; and Broadcom offers residual value support—essentially guaranteeing the future resale value of the equipment. This indicates that compute contracts have been packaged as financial assets akin to infrastructure projects, with banks and private credit participants actively involved. There are two layers to the investment thesis here. The bullish view: cloud providers and chipmakers now enjoy significantly extended revenue visibility. Previously, markets worried AI capital expenditures lacked end-customer demand—now, at least, there is one rapidly growing buyer locked into multi-year contracts. The bearish view: these commitments are heavily dependent on Anthropic’s own ability to raise capital and grow revenue. The prospectus shows Anthropic generated approximately $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of this year—yet its external compute commitments are more than twenty times that amount. Should AI model price wars intensify or revenue growth slow, these contracts could become a heavy burden, with risk ultimately cascading back to Broadcom, Google, and Amazon. The fact that Broadcom provides residual value support is especially telling—it means Broadcom isn’t just selling chips; it’s also assuming part of the credit and asset-price risk. Three key developments to watch next: First, the size of Anthropic’s IPO proceeds—this will determine its ability to pay compute bills over the next two to three years. Second, how Broadcom and Google describe Anthropic-related revenue and orders in their next earnings reports. Third, the pacing of compute contract fulfillment—particularly whether large commitments after 2027 will be honored on schedule. When a single company is simultaneously your shareholder, your largest customer, and your greatest credit risk—do you see these orders from Broadcom and Google as a moat… or a liability?