Posts
avatar

📺 What You Need To Know Ahead Of This Week: Falling Yields, Rising Oil, Big Tech Earnings & The Fed Please ❤️like and 🔁share with fellow growth stock investors @toddmichael70 provides an update ahead of the new week, noting that the market remains in a short-term pullback and "Protect Mode", but beneath the surface, an important rotation is taking place. While AI leaders and mega-cap technology stocks continue to struggle, other areas of the market are showing remarkable resilience. The $SPY and $QQQ remain below their 21-day and 50-day moving averages, while the equal-weight S&P 500 ($RSP) is holding above both. That divergence tells an important story: value and equal-weight stocks are outperforming as investors rotate away from crowded AI and mega-cap growth trades. The numbers speak for themselves: – $SPX / $SPY was down -0.5% last week – $QQQ: -0.8% – $RSP: +1.1% – $MAGS: -1.7% – Our Revere AI 100: -4.06%, following a nearly 15% decline the previous week. * Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below 5%, providing some relief to equities. But oil has climbed to $103.44 $USO, its highest closing level since May, introducing renewed inflation concerns just as the Fed faces another critical policy decision this week. * Market breadth remains a major warning sign. Net new lows continue to accumulate, and we haven't seen positive net new highs since the deterioration began in late August. Until breadth improves, patience and selectivity remain essential. * Historically, the fourth quarter of midterm election years has been favorable for stocks, with the S&P 500 posting gains in 16 of 19 such years since 1950. However, the exceptions coincided with Fed tightening cycles. And that's precisely the challenge today. Following hotter-than-expected CPI, markets are pricing roughly a 74% probability of another 25-basis-point hike at the December 9 Fed meeting, compared with just a 10% probability at the upcoming meeting. Monetary policy may ultimately matter more than historical seasonality. * This week brings a massive earnings calendar, including $HOOD, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $INTC, $CAT, $LLY, $SNDK, $COIN, and $TWLO, alongside major energy producers. Big Tech earnings will be especially important as investors scrutinize AI CapEx, cloud demand, margins, and the sustainability of future growth. $META, which reported earnings last week, contributed to the weakness in mega-cap technology as its increased AI CapEx raised concerns about the costs and near-term returns of massive AI infrastructure investments. * On the economic front, durable goods, consumer confidence, new home sales, the FOMC meeting, and the crucial PCE inflation report could all move markets, particularly bonds. A very important week for bonds $TLT $BND. * So, falling yields and improving relative strength outside technology are encouraging, but persistent AI weakness, deteriorating breadth, rising oil prices, and Fed uncertainty keep the market vulnerable. The rotation is real, but a sustainable recovery remains unconfirmed. We remain in protect mode, stay selective, and let price action and market breadth provide confirmation before increasing risk. * Watch this Short video where @toddmichael70 breaks it all down in detail 🔽

This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It may include third-party insights, sponsored content, or promotional material for which the creator may receive compensation. Nothing in this feed constitutes investment advice or a guarantee of returns. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and exercise caution before trading. We do not guarantee the accuracy of third-party information and are not liable for any losses incurred. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please refer to our Community Terms and Risk Disclosure Statement for details.

avatarPost your reply

Comment