$XRP Setup | SHORT
XRP is pinned below all major short-term EMAs and keeps failing to reclaim $1.30. Whale wallets are shrinking while exchange balances are rising, adding supply overhang right at the bottom of a multi-week range. The path of least resistance remains lower until buyers prove otherwise.
Trade Plan
Direction: Short
Entry Zone: $1.265 – $1.285 (on a confirmed break below $1.26)
Stop Loss: $1.315
TP1: $1.110
TP2: $0.980
TP3: $0.900
Why This Makes Sense
• Price is trading under the 7, 25, and 99 EMAs, and the 7 EMA is already curling lower, confirming short-term bearish control.
• RSI is hovering around 39–42, nowhere near oversold, leaving room for another leg down before exhaustion.
• Exchange inflows have jumped by roughly 50 million XRP, and whale wallets holding 10M–100M tokens dropped from 351 to 339, a classic distribution signal.
• A sustained break below $1.26 opens the door to $1.11 and then $0.98, with very little structural support in between.
Risk Note
This is a momentum short, not a hope trade. If XRP reclaims $1.30 and holds above it, the breakdown thesis is invalid and I’m out. Size the position so a stop-out above $1.315 is a minor scratch, not a portfolio dent. The Ripple Swell conference is next week, so headline risk is real—don’t get greedy if the market front-runs the news.
What do you think?
Would you take this setup, or wait for confirmation?
