Oct 28 FOMC: @CMEGroup FedWatch prices a 90% hold, with hike odds down from 68.6% to 10% in a month. → After the Sep 16 hike, $BTC rose 10.7% in a week vs Nasdaq 100 +5.3%, S&P 500 +2.0% and gold −1.6%. → Since Sep 24 the hike got mostly priced out, yet BTC and Nasdaq both fell ~5% and gold 6.7%. ★ A hold is priced in, so it may not move BTC much; a surprise hike is the real tail risk.
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