The BTC battle has held firm, no matter what. Last weekend’s dip to $79,146 marked the lowest point in over a month. Over $800 million in liquidations occurred within 24 hours, nearly $700 million of which were long positions. With thin liquidity over the weekend, leverage was aggressively washed out—now the price has rebounded to around $80,800. Fortunately, $79K held—a critical signal. It’s both the options’ max pain level and the bottom range of the past month. The fact that the spike was pulled back suggests strong buying support below. But don’t get too optimistic—pressure remains: 1️⃣ Price has broken below the 50-day moving average (~$81.5K–$81.8K), the first time since August. 2️⃣ Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $636 million on Thursday, the largest single-day outflow since June. 3️⃣ The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 5.08%, Brent crude is above $117, and September’s CPI came in at 3.7%—inflationary pressures have not yet eased. That’s why Wednesday’s FOMC meeting (Thursday at 2:00 AM Beijing time) is critical: 🔹 The consensus expectation is for no rate change; CME pricing last week implied an ~85% probability. But with Wessel taking over, forward guidance has been dropped—no hints before the meeting; even he admitted in October: “Both outcomes are possible.” 🔹 The probability of a December rate hike remains above 70%. If Wessel’s post-meeting tone is dovish and leaves room for December, BTC will likely reclaim the $81.5K MA first, then target $85K. 🔹 If there’s an unexpected hike or a clear signal pointing to another hike in December, $79K will be tested again—with potential downside to $78.4K. My strategy: $79K is the key divide between bulls and bears. If held, look for accumulation near the low; $85K is the upper boundary. If it breaks decisively below, avoid catching the falling knife—wait for sentiment to clear. Don’t use high leverage before the decision; last weekend’s $700M+ long liquidations are a stark warning. Wednesday will tell us everything.