🌊 Liquidity Update Dollar The broad dollar index closed at 121.40 on 16 October, below 122.00 two sessions earlier but still firm. That retreat offers some relief at the margin. It does not yet signal abundant global dollar liquidity. Treasury Yields At the latest official close on 23 October, the two year Treasury yield was 4.69%, the ten year was 5.00%, and the thirty year was 5.33%. The ten year stood 31 basis points above the two year. A positive slope helps some credit channels, but a 5% ten year yield still imposes a demanding discount rate on long duration and speculative assets. Monetary Conditions In the week ended 21 October, Reserve Bank credit was almost unchanged at $6.707 trillion. The Treasury General Account rose by about $68.6 billion to $952.0 billion, while reserve balances fell by about $59.5 billion to $2.963 trillion. In plain language, the Treasury cash rebuild absorbed bank reserves while the central bank balance sheet offered little offset. The domestic reverse repo balance was only about $0.3 billion, leaving little cushion there. Digital Asset Liquidity USDC circulation stood at $71.99 billion on 22 October. That is a substantial settlement base for digital markets, but stablecoin depth cannot fully counter tighter dollar plumbing. Onchain transfer capacity can remain healthy while broader risk liquidity stays selective. Regime The current regime is tight. High long term yields, an elevated Treasury cash balance, falling reserves, and a firm dollar outweigh the support from stablecoin depth. Liquidity Score: 3/10 Outlook A durable improvement would require reserve balances to stabilize, the Treasury cash balance to stop rising, the ten year yield to move convincingly below 5%, and the dollar to extend its retreat. Until then, rallies are more likely to reflect selective positioning than broad liquidity expansion.