📅 WEEKLY MACRO & RISK CALENDAR — OCTOBER 26–30, 2026 Main Theme of the Week: Fed, BoC, RBNZ, ECB, and BoJ decisions all arrive within the same week. At the Fed, attention will focus more on the distribution of votes and clues about December than on the rate decision itself. U.S. third-quarter growth and September PCE data will be released shortly before the ECB decision. The U.S. remains on daylight saving time until November 1, while Europe switches to winter time on October 25. All times are in Turkey time (TRT). ━━━━━━━━━━ MONDAY, OCTOBER 26 🇩🇪 Around 12:00 — Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (October) 🇨🇳 The Chinese Communist Party's Fifth Plenum begins (October 26–29); the focus will be on growth and consumption. 🇺🇸 No major macroeconomic data releases; Treasury buyback operation (20–30-year bonds). ━━━━━━━━━━ TUESDAY, OCTOBER 27 🇨🇳 Industrial profits (September) 🇺🇸 15:30 — Durable goods orders (September, preliminary) 🇺🇸 17:00 — Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (October) 🇺🇸 Richmond Fed and Dallas Fed manufacturing indexes; the Fed's two-day meeting begins. 🇮🇱 Israeli general election; neither of the two blocs is expected to reach 61 seats, creating the risk of prolonged coalition negotiations. ━━━━━━━━━━ WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28 🇳🇿 04:00 — RBNZ interest rate decision (current rate: 2.75%; a 25-basis-point hike is highly anticipated). 🇦🇺 Australian inflation (September); a hotter-than-expected reading would strengthen expectations of a rate hike ahead of the RBA meeting on November 3. 🇬🇧 UK autumn budget; proposed tax increases on banks and narrowing fiscal buffers are key issues. 🇨🇦 16:45 — BoC interest rate decision and Monetary Policy Report (current rate: 2.25%; markets are pricing in approximately an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point hike). 🇺🇸 21:00 — Fed interest rate decision (current target range: 3.75%–4.00%; rates are expected to remain unchanged). 🇺🇸 21:30 — Fed Chair's press conference; guidance on December and the number of dissenting votes will be the week's most critical focus. ━━━━━━━━━━ THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29 🇯🇵 Tokyo CPI (October) and retail sales (September); Tokyo inflation is a leading indicator for national CPI. 🇪🇺 Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (October). 🇺🇸 15:30 — GDP (third quarter, advance estimate); expectations are around 3.0% annualized growth. 🇺🇸 15:30 — PCE price index and personal income and spending (September); headline monthly inflation is expected at 0.5%, with core monthly inflation at 0.3%. 🇺🇸 15:30 — Weekly jobless claims. 🇪🇺 16:15 — ECB interest rate decision (current deposit rate: 2.50%; rates are expected to remain unchanged). 🇪🇺 16:45 — ECB President's press conference; markets will watch for any signal of a December rate hike. ━━━━━━━━━━ FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30 🇯🇵 Around 06:00 — BoJ interest rate decision and Outlook Report (current rate: 1.25%; rates are expected to remain unchanged). Press conference at approximately 09:30. 🇹🇷 CBRT Monetary Policy Committee meeting summary. 🇪🇺 Third-quarter GDP for the eurozone, Germany, and France; preliminary October inflation data for Germany, France, Spain, and Italy. 🇨🇦 Canada GDP (August). 🇺🇸 15:30 — Employment Cost Index (third quarter); a wage-pressure indicator for the Fed's December decision. ━━━━━━━━━━ IMPACT ON THE CRYPTO MARKET AND KEY WEEKLY RISKS The week's main focal point is Wednesday, between 21:00 and 21:30. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, the primary market impact will come from the language used during the press conference and dissenting votes. If members who voted for a rate hike in July dissent again, expectations for a December hike could increase. Liquidity-sensitive assets such as crypto typically react quickly to signals of a more hawkish stance. Thursday at 15:30 represents a multifaceted risk window. A hotter-than-expected PCE reading would confirm inflationary pressure and increase the probability of further Fed tightening, while strong GDP growth would reinforce that signal. The ECB decision immediately afterward could trigger a second wave of market moves, potentially reversing the initial reaction to the U.S. data. Sharp moves in the dollar index could exert pressure on Bitcoin and altcoins in the opposite direction. The overall direction of central bank decisions points toward tighter policy: markets are pricing in hikes from the BoC and RBNZ, while December hikes from the Fed and ECB are also being discussed. Against this backdrop, a more hawkish-than-expected tone from the BoJ on Friday morning could increase the risk of yen carry trades unwinding. Such unwinding has triggered sudden liquidations in crypto markets in the past. Friday's U.S. Employment Cost Index and the Asian session at the end of the week could carry these effects into markets. On the geopolitical front, an inconclusive outcome in the Israeli election could weaken regional risk appetite. If the Chinese plenum fails to deliver stimulus signals, caution in Asian markets could persist. As the week closes, note that U.S. daylight saving time ends on November 1. Starting next week, U.S. data releases and policy decisions will occur one hour earlier in Turkey time. bitcoin:native ripple:native