Happy weekend! $BTC’s $80K retest has my attention. I’m watching this level before getting more bullish. Glassnode puts the average cost basis of spot ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies around $80K-$81.5K. Losing $80K would leave both groups underwater on average. Above that, $85K-$87.5K brings together 3 obstacles: → The cost basis of 6-12 month holders → Large spot sell orders → Futures liquidation clusters I’d take a daily close above $87.5K seriously, especially with stronger volume. The $653M ETF inflow on October 19 is encouraging. But trading volume remained weak. I want to see inflows repeat before calling this a sustained recovery in institutional demand. Also, we should be cautious about the leverage data. Altcoin funding has cooled sharply, yet open interest at constant prices is only around 5% below its October peak. Lower funding alone doesn’t convince me that leverage has reset. Most positions are still open. > 3 things I’m tracking next: - October 28: The Fed decision and what it changes about rate expectations - November 11: MSCI’s removal list, particularly whether Strategy is included - BTC’s reaction between $80K and $87.5K The question is whether buyers can sustain demand as price approaches resistance 🤔