As of this past Wednesday, the latest Fed H4.1 report shows reserves declined to $2.96 trillion, while the Treasury’s TGA account stands at over $940 billion. Reviewing the Treasury’s debt auction schedule, multiple bond issuances—including bills and coupons—are still pending through the end of October, with a net funding requirement of $132 billion ($106.1 billion from bills and $26 billion from coupons). This implies that by month-end, the TGA is likely to rise again to its target range of approximately $1.05 trillion—the same range the Treasury set for late October in early August. Consequently, reserves could fall further to around $2.85 trillion, aligning with our earlier prediction of a liquidity low point by late October. According to the Treasury’s prior plan, TGA funds will begin to be gradually released starting in November, leading to a rebound in reserves. This suggests that the previously discussed optimal buying opportunity for Bitcoin—likely in the second half of October or early November—may indeed materialize. We’ll know more next week. Of course, the Treasury’s debt issuance schedule for November through January 2027 will be announced soon; we’ll then assess the precise timing and pace of upcoming auctions. For a detailed breakdown of the logic behind this Bitcoin correction, see here: https://t.co/huSfI3Scit For a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between liquidity, Bitcoin/crypto, and U.S. equities, see this detailed breakdown by Grok: https://t.co/eVTr1w5szw