confidence can make a bad prediction look convincing. someone can have a strong opinion about an election, a market move or a product launch and still get it completely wrong. having a reason to believe something will happen doesn’t make it inevitable. prediction markets add another dimension by letting people express their expectations through market positions tied to specific outcomes. that’s one of the areas @PRDCTR_IO is exploring as it develops infrastructure for prediction markets around trusted media and real world events. being certain is easy. getting it right is another story.
