Today, global capital markets are shrouded in gloom, yet Anthropic is preparing for what could be the largest IPO in history. Asian markets are broadly down, gold is pulling back, and even cryptocurrencies are not spared. Amid this backdrop, Anthropic has announced it will publicly file its S-1 prospectus this Friday, with a potential listing as early as November. Previously, the market had speculated on a valuation as high as $2 trillion. Let’s examine its financials: revenue for the first half of the year reached $16.3 billion, but net losses soared to $80.7 billion. However, $72 billion of that loss stems from changes in the fair value of convertible bonds—a paper loss with no actual cash outflow. Let’s revisit last week’s discussion on debt yields. Anthropic’s subordinated debt issued in June carried an 8.5% yield, while another financing round in October exceeded 10%. Although this differs slightly from the bonds we discussed previously, the core logic remains the same: the higher the risk, the greater the risk premium investors demand. While equity markets are still debating a $2 trillion valuation, debt investors are already demanding higher returns. At this moment, is the market still willing to pay such an astronomical valuation? Can Anthropic replicate the listing success of $SPCX? I can already picture the market’s liquidity situation. The market is already parched—adding a mega-IPO like this would be the final straw.